Thursday, September 5, 2019

Filip Forsberg Jersey Card

(As per years past, this is a twin-post with my "regular" blog, where I predicted the Nashville Predators would finish first in the Central Division in 2019-20).

Filip Forsberg is a very good first-line player, but I do not think he qualifies as "elite", as seen in his statistics from the last five seasons:
From HockeyDB
Career-highs of 64 points, hitting the 30-goal plateau only twice, only one season with close to a point-per-game average (and thus not quite at a point-per-game average for his career, at age 25); we're a far cry from Nikita Kucherov, Phil Kessel, Claude Giroux, Mikko Rantanen or even the one-season wonder (so far), Mitch Marner.

The excuse of playing for a defensive Preds team doesn't quite exist under head coach Peter Laviolette, although some of the blame does fall on the disappointments that have been Nashville's centres - mostly Ryan Johansen in Forsberg's situation, but a case can also be made for the sub-par play of Kyle Turris and Nick Bonino. Playing with consistent play-makers would go a long way into his converting more shot attempts into goals, particularly since he's not so fond of so-called "garbage goals" (where a player stands near or in front of the opposing goalie to either deflect the puck behind him accidentally or catch an empty-net goal on a rebound).

Would he have scored 40 with the Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, Calgary Flames or Vegas Golden Knights? Maybe. Possibly. Probably.

But he likely still would have missed nearly 20 games for two straight seasons.

Ironically, he has a tendency to score more in the second half of a every season, when the play gets tighter, as teams start preparing for the playoffs and fight for seeding. He might just be a slow starter, he might be the type of clutch player who only performs well against top-level oposition or when there are stakes. His playoff statistics from 2016-17 and 2017-18 would certainly be an indication of that.

I'll continue to monitor the situation and should have an answer within five years' time.

In the meantime, here he is sporting the Predators' (awful) white (away) uniform, on card #GJ-FF from Upper Deck's 2015-16 Series 2 set and UD Game Jersey sub-set:
It includes a yellow game-worn jersey swatch, probably stemming from the team's (even-worse) yellow (home) uniform.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Rob Blake Swatch Card

(As per years past, this is a twin-post with my "regular" blog, where I predicted the Los Angeles Kings would finish last in the NHL in 2019-20).

Rob Blake is many things: a Hall of Famer, a Stanley Cup winner (Colorado Avalanche, 2001), the 11th member of the Triple Gold Club, a former captain of two NHL teams (Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks), a Norris Trophy-winning defenseman (1998), and a current General Manager, a position he has occupied since April 10, 2017 and has yet to make any significant impact in.

With his Kings finishing in last place in the West last season, he opted to make the following roster moves at the trade deadline and over the summer:
  • Traded Carl Hagelin, who had played only 22 games with the team after being acquired for Tanner Pearson, to the Washington Capitals for two mid-round draft picks
  • Traded Nate Thompson, who had played only 79 games with the team, to the Montreal Canadiens for a fourth-round draft pick
  • Traded Oscar Fantenberg, who had played only 74 games with the team, to the Calgary Flames for a conditional pick in 2020.
  • Bought out the final two years of Dion Phaneuf’s contract
  • Signed Joakim Ryan to a one-year deal in free agency
What the actual fuck.

He's spending $11M annually until 2025 on Drew Doughty, a defenseman who has been alternating good and bad seasons since 2009-10 - and last year's 8 goals, 44 points and -34 rating in 82 games is the worst among everyone making over $7M a year - and the same can be said for $10M captain (until 2024) Anze Kopitar, who's been on and off since 2013-14.

That's saying nothing of former captain Dustin Brown's annual salary of $5.75M until 2022, who seems to have maxed out at some 20 goals per season after five straight seasons below that threshold.

And, instead of trying to help Russian superstar Ilya Kovalchuk regain his mojo, Blake stayed with head coach Willie Desjardins until the end of the season, despite Slick Willie being unable to get his team to win or even want to play.

So many bad decisions followed by so much inaction - yet so much dead wood to get rid of.

Unless he's tanking for the benefit of his successor, Blake actually seems to be on a mission to waste his boss' money with absolutely nothing to show for it on the ice, performing a reverse-Wayne Gretzky and trying to kill off hockey in California.

It seems like the only logical explanation.

Here he is wearing the King's white (then-home) uniform from the 1998-2008 era, sporting the captain's "C", on card #GG-RBL from Panini's 2013-14 Titanium set and Game-Worn Gear sub-set:
It features a black game-worn jersey swatch from the team's black (away/third) uniform of the same era.

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Niklas Kronwall Dual Jersey Card

(As per years past, this is a twin-post with my "regular" blog, where I predicted the Detroit Red Wings would finish seventh in the Atlantic Division in 2019-20).

One of the hardest hitters of all time took his final bow today, as Niklas Kronwall of the Detroit Red Wings announced his retirement.

He was only suspended once (for a single playoff game, but a Game 7, see the second hit, on the Tampa Bay Lightning's Nikita Kucherov, in the video below) in his 15-year NHL career, which means that the league deemed the rest of his crushing hits (dubbed "Getting Kronwalled") legal. Which they were. Take a look:

At 6' and 195 pounds, he was fairly small for a defenseman drafted in 2000 (29th overall), but it fit his style perfectly, as it enabled him to check opponents right in the middle of the chest - exactly where it's ok to hit, where they should see you coming - usually skating backwards toward them so as to ensure he hits them with his back or shoulder, making certain his elbow stays low and to avoid head contact.

But let's not forget he was also way more than that. He had a booming shot and was a fast and smooth skater, too.

He had a few 40-point seasons (with a high of 51 in 2008-09, leading the Wings to a second straight Stanley Cup Final, following the 2008 Cup win) and wore the "A" as the team's alternate captain. He also won Olympic gold (2006) and silver (2016) and World Championship gold (2006) and silver (2003) medals with Team Sweden. With Henrik Zetterberg and Mikael Samuelsson, he's part of the trio of special players who own the distinction of having acquired the Triple Gold title the fastest - in just over two years' time.

He will now be an assistant to the team's new GM, Steve Yzerman.

Here he is wearing the team,s white (away) uniform, on card #DET-NK from Upper Deck's 2011-12 Black Diamond set and Double Diamond Jerseys sub-set:
It features two game-worn jersey swatches that could be from either the home or away uniform, as one is white and the other is red.

Thank you for your time, sir; you will be missed, but you will also be remembered. Best of luck in your new career.

Monday, September 2, 2019

Braden Holtby Jersey Card

(As per years past, this is a twin-post with my "regular" blog, where I predicted the Washington Capitals would finish first in the Metropolitan Division in 2019-20).

One of the things that could derail the Caps' season is the fact that two of their biggest stars - Nicklas Backstrom and Braden Holtby - are entering the final years of their currents respective contracts, and that Holtby may be looking to increase his $6.1M annual salary (which would, in my opinion, be a huge mistake).

Only one current goalie is worth 10% of his team's salary cap (currently slated at $81.5M, so just north of $8M), and that's Sergei Bobrovsky, the only active two-time Vezina winner (both deserved, by the way, which is something I can rarely say about this award). The rest, because they should be limited to 55-60 games per and because the position itself calls for an inconsistency rate that falls at roughly one bad season per five years, should make between $5M (middle-of-the-pack guys) and $7.5 (Vezina winners and consistent high-level performers, like Tuukka Rask).

Holtby falls a notch below that, so between $6.5M and $7M, as the second-best Canadian goalie behind the oft-injured Corey Crawford. Crawford's been more consistent; you might remember that when the Caps won the Stanley Cup a year ago, he'd been unseated as the #1 by Philipp Grubauer not only for the final stretch of the regular season, but also the first two playoff games.

At age 29, he also just posted two of the worst regular-season stat lines of his career, with a goals-against average of 2.99 and a .907 save percentage in 2017-18 and 2.82 and .911 in 2018-19. The Capitals need to know if this is his new normal or just two outlier seasons in a row before a three- or four-year stretch of back-to-elite play. After all, the 2017-18 season was one where his head coach was Barry Trotz, the best defensive mind in hockey.

In any event, here's Holtby at the height of his powers, fresh off a Vezina win and about to acquire a Jennings Trophy, on card #GJ-BH from Upper Deck's 2016-17 Series 1 set and UD Game Jersey sub-set:
It shows him wearing the Capitals' current red (home) uniform, with a blue game-worn jersey swatch that is probably from the underarm stretch of that Reebok sweater.

Sunday, September 1, 2019

Anthony Beauvillier: Two Autographed Cards

(As per years past, this is a twin-post with my "regular" blog, where I predicted the Isles would finish second in the Metropolitan Division in 2019-20).

Anthony Beauvillier seemingly took a step back in his age 21 season in Barry Trotz' defensive system, but he learned the fundamentals that will help him going forward. An offensively-minded centre in Juniors who was a two-point-per-game player after being drafted, Beauvillier made the New York Islanders' roster as a winger, for the simple reason that there were already three first-round centres already on te team in John Tavares, Brock Nelson and Ryan Strome, and in time he seemed to develop chemistry with Josh Bailey and, eventually, Mathew Barzal.

Now in his fourth NHL season, it'd be surprising to see him start facing off against lifelong centres, so it's likely he'll remain on the wing, where his playmaking skills might only go utilized on the powerplay. He does remain an excellent shooter though, and with a 20-goal season already under his belt, it's time he set his sights on the 30-goal plateau, which he could reach at least fibe or six times in a 105-year career in my opinion, with a high of around 35 or 36.

Think of him as a second-line version of the Florida Panthers' Jonathan Huberdeau and you're close to what his upside can be. The Islanders signed him to a two-year bridge deal expecting a breakout season soon.

Here he is wearing Team Canada's red (away) uniform on card #34 from Upper Deck's 2016-17 Team Canada Juniors set:
He's wearing the #21 jersey, which is perfect for my Team Canada Numbers Project.

And here's a great three-picture card showing him with the Isles:
It's #120 from Upper Deck' 2017-18 Series 1 collection.

He signed these in blue sharpie during the 2018-19 season, but I alos have some that he signed this summer at a charity event that I'll feature eventually.