This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this collectibles blog and my personal one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.
Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being underway, several players haven't found a team yet, (at least) three star players have active trade requests, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much left to do.
Key Exits: Chris Kreider (C), John Carlson (D), Jacob Trouba (D), Mason McTavish (C), Radko Gudas (D), Petr Mrazek (G), Olen Zellweger (D), Ross Johnston (LW), Jansen Harkins (C), Jeffrey Viel (LW)
Key Arrivals: A.J. Greer (LW), Nick Jensen (D), Jeff Malott (LW), Laurent Brossoit (G), Travis Mitchell (D), Anton Wahlberg (C)
Top prospects: Roger McQueen (C, 20), Nikita Klepov (RW, 18), Marcus Nordmark (LW, 18), Tristan Luneau (D, 22), Stian Solberg (D, 20), Lucas Pettersson (C 20), Wahlberg (C, 20), Eric Nilson (C, 19)
The Anaheim Ducks' defensive meanness and overall depth took a major beating with the departures of Trouba and Gudas and the Philadelphia Flyers' $18M a year offer sheet to Leo Carlsson that Anaheim matched and susbequent slight overpayment on Cutter Gauthier (who scored 41 goals and had 69 points in 76 games last season) for six years at a $13.5M cap hit. It's ok to want to get paid - and good on you if you can back your team into enough of a corner that they acquiesce to your salary demands. But the fact remains that cap space is limited per season, and while it's expeected to be $20-30M higher in three years, it is at $104M this season, meaning these two forwards account for 30.29% of the cap to themselves, leaving less than 70% for the rest of the roster, which is ideally 21 guys. They made the playoffs last season and seemed to open a window, but the cap crunch has postponed the playoff contention window for at leas ta couple of seasons, and with Carlsson's deal leading to free agency after five years, their actual Stanley Cup contention will have to be in years four and five of that deal, so all moves from GM Pat Verbeek from now until then have to be with that timeline in mind, and most of them winners.
What makes their odds look good:
Carlsson was a second-overall draft pick in Connor Bedard's draft class, so he was essentially pencilled in to be the Jack Eichel to Bedard's Connor McDavid. The potential is there, he just hasn't been a point-per-game player in the NHL yet. Gauthier scored over 40 goals, Beckett Sennecke had a fine rookie season that he will need to build upon, Jackson Lacombe is an Olympics-level defenseman (Team USA, gold medal, 2026)Lukas Dostal is an Olympics-level goalie (Team Czechia, 2026), and despite the loss of Kreider, there are still a lot of dependable veteran forwards in Alex Killorn, Ryan Poehling, and Mikael Granlund.
Question marks:
Where will the grit on defense come from? Who's going to stop (or at least discourage) opponents from making a straight line to the slot for prime chances on Dostal, Ville Husso and Brossoit? What if the pressure is too big for the young guys up front?
Outlook:
Honestly, on paper, the Ducks took a big step back from last year which, combined with the San Jose Sharks' step forward, might cost them a playoff spot.
Prediction:
4th in the Pacific Division.
We've heard over and over again how the Carlsson offer sheet changed the NHL salary landscape, but I disagree. It was the largest pebble thrown in the river in the first few days of free agency, but let's keep in mind that becauise it was an offer sheet, it was not eligible to be used as a comparable for arbitration hearings, for example. Bedard's $15M cap hit deal was, and would have counted as next year's highest team-signed contract value as well as value ofr a deal one year removed from the end of an ELC, and also new value for high-profile captain. And if Bedard is worth $15M, then it comes to reason that Macklin Celebrini, off being named the IIHF's Player Of The Year and with far superior statistics at his age than Bedard, would be worth more, and thus $18.8M per year; and that in itself being the best defenseman in the world, a Conn Smythe and multiple-Norris winner (Cale Makar) would be worth close to the maximum allowed - and that even if it restricts the Colorado Avalanche's contention window for 2007-28 and 2028-29 before being a far easier percentage of the cap to handle in 2029-30, he's still very affordbale this season at $9M. There is a give that's just about equal to the take. I don't necessarily see that yet with Carlsson, who shot up to the stratosphere without having an elite individual season nor taken his team to any form of true success (no Cup, no Presidents' Trophy), no Olympic medal.
The Chicago Blackhawks never won another Stanley Cup after Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews went from roughly $6M per year to $10.5M; the Pittsburgh Penguins went to the Final in 2007-08 and won the Stanley Cup in 2008-09 before Evgeni Malkin reached Sidney Crosby's $8.7M cap hit and Kris Letang also got a significant raise, and they were irrelevant until the NHL salary cap went to $71.4M in 2015-16 and the Pens could afford to surround them with otehr quality players.
Which is to say I'm not blaming Carlsson and Gauthier for trying to earn what they feel they're worth; but perhaps they will come to regret going that far if the decision costs them wins, championships and success - assuming they're not just mercenaries or individualistic. Here is the yellow printing plate from Upper Deck's 2024-25 MVP set and It's Their Time sub-set:
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