Let's talk NHL draft picks and their worth.
More and more analytical models have tried to determine what a draft position can represent - either as average NHL talent per rank, or as trade value, or weighing the value of one team's possible pick versus another's; in any case, not only are they subjective, with each team having their own value algorithms and models, but also each team having different priorities and needs (some teams do not value goaltending as highly as others, for example, others preferring size over speed), but also each year not having the same level of talent - either at the top or depth-wise. For instance, many "haters" point to the Edmonton Oilers having won the lottery to choose first four times in a six-year span, but even they need to admit that Nail Yakupov, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor McDavid are not on the same level. If anything, a team who won the 2012 lottery probably deserves to also win the 2015 one. Essentially, though, a top-five pick should get you a first-liner or top-three defenseman, a top-ten pick should be a second-liner or top-four D, the middle to two-thirds into the first round could be a second-liner, and anything past that is probably a depth player. Of course, there will always be exceptions, such as second-rounders Hall Of Fame centre Patrice Bergeron (), current Hart laureate Nikita Kucherov (58th overall in 2011, Tampa Bay Lightning) and Montréal Canadiens' best defenseman Lane Hutson (62nd overall in 2022), and late picks such as the best goalie of all time Patrick Roy (third round, 51st, 1984, Canadiens), Lightning star Brayden Point (79th overall in 2014), the best active goalie Connor Hellebuyck (5th round, 130th overall in 2012, Winnipeg Jets), a defensive member of Mount Rushmore in Nicklas Lidstrom (53rd overall, 1989, Detroit Red Wings), active HoF candidate Roman Josi (38th overall, Nashville Predators, 2008), and Hall Of Fame netminder Henrik Lundqvist (7th round, 205th overall in 2000, New York Rangers).
That being said, a hockey team isn't just a bunch of skilled Hall of Famers doing their thing and magically winning Stanley Cups; there needs to be a team identity, a strategy, a leadership group following a direction, and worker bees winning their matchups when the stars aren't on the ice - and those guys can be found in any round, from the first to the last (currently seventh, but I remember 11th- and 12th-round picks when I was a kid). So each round, each time needs to ask itself if they're picking the top available current talent, the player with the most "upside" (possible peak, with the understanding that he may not ever reach it), or a player with "character"; each team has a team of scouts who each have their preference, and they must find the closest thing to consensus in the moment.
And that's why very talented players "fall" to the second or third round, and sometimes that best player available lands in a team where their skill set might be redundant and have to find another avenue to express their talent. Case in point: Marc-André Gragnani, selected in the third round (87th overall, 2005) by the Buffalo Sabres. We're talking about a 6'1", 200-pound offensive defenseman who skates well, has a decent shot and makes firm and accurate passes, and who was an alternate captain and a a point-per-game player for the Prince Edward Island Rocket of the LHJMQ in Juniors. But the Sabres had veteran Jaroslav Spacek ahead of him, then 6'8", 230-pound Rookie Of The Year Tyler Myers and then prized free agent signing Christian Ehrhoff ahead of him, so he never really had a shot to earn regular NHL minutes, let alone run a powerplay. Instead, he made himself indispensable at the AHL level, winning the Eddie Shore Award for best defenseman in 2010-11 on the strength of a 60-point (12 goals, 48 assists) season in 63 games. Eventually, there may not have been room for him in North America, but European teams came knocking and he was able to play professionally and accumulate over 35 goals and 150 points in the process, mostly in the KHL (Prague Lev, Minsk Dynamo, Kunlun Red Star) where he also played in the 2018 All-Star Game, but also in Switzerland (SC Bern) and Sweden (Djurgardens IF).
All of this brought him to wear the red, white and black of Team Canada at the 2018 Olympics, where he won bronze when NHL players were denied a chance to participate. With the KHL (and all European leagues, plus AHL players not on two-way contracts with the NHL) allowing its players to go, Team Russia dominated the tournament with stars like Pavel Datsyuk, Ilya Kovalchuk, Igor Shesterkin, Kirill Kaprizov, and Ilya Sorokin, but the rest of the teams were pretty evenly matched; Team Germany won silver.
All told, Gragnani has carved out an interesting career for himself. He also spent the 2025-26 season as an assistant coach with the Straubing Tigers in the DEL (Germany). Here he is wearing the PEI Rocket's red (away) uniform on card #A-MAG from In The Game's 2005-06 Heroes And Prospects set:
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