Caps Preview: Alex Ovechkin Swatch Card

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This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Brenden Dillon (D), Craig Anderson (G), Michael Raffl (LW), Zdeno Chara (D)

Key Arrivals: Matt Irwin (D), xxx (LW), xxx (C/LW), xxx (C), xxx (LW), xxx (D), xxx (D), xxx (G)

Top prospects: Connor McMichael (C), Hendrix Lapierre (C), Martin Fehervary (D), Alexander Alexeyev (D), Vincent Iorio (D), Damien Riat (LW), Aliaksei Protas (C), Brent Johnson (D), Brett Leason (RW), Kody Clark (RW), Lucas Johansen (D)

Sure, the Washington Capitals' stars are all in their 30s, they have few top-tier prospects that have Toronto-based pundits salivating and have exited the playoffs early every year since their 2018 Stanley Cup win, but this nucleus remains rock-solid with the likes of Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Anthony Mantha, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov. The goaltending position is also in good hands with Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek.

What makes their odds look good:
They can outscore the opposition like few teams can and have better goaltending than the Toronto Maple Leafs. If someone in the Atlantic can eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team from the Metropolitan Division could make it to the Cup Final.

Question marks: A lot of their firepower is tied into a handful of players, who account for a lot of the team's cap space. There are depth issues, and any injury troubles would mean a huge drop in the standings for the Caps.

Outlook:
This team hired Peter Laviolette as head coach because it is still hungry for a Cup. Regular-season seeding doesn't have to matter much, the postseason is how this team will be judged, now and forever.

Prediction:
Third in the Metropolitan Division.

Fresh off a five-year deal that will realistically lead him to breaking Wayne Gretzky's career goals record, Ovechkin is a man on (another) mission. And while the chase for Gretzky's goals record is huge in itself, Ovie is also chasing Sidney Crosby's two undeserved Conn Smythes, a gimme from a handful of Toronto-based journalists who didn't want to give Phil Kessel his due. Should Ovechkin get a second one, it might even force the Hall Of Fame to waive its three-year waiting period to get him in.

Here he is wearing the team's dreadful red (home) Reebok Edge uniform from a few years back, on the swatch version of card #73 from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite collection:

It features a white game-worn jersey swatch. I got this one on Ebay for just over five bucks; its usual book value is closer to $40-50.

Cam Ward Swatch Card

Cam Ward was the Carolina Hurricanes' best goalie last year, which put them in a corner when he turned free agent but no other team offered him a contract: they brought him back for two years at half price, even though he never lived up to his previous contract.

Heck, he never lived up to his rookie season, where he overachieved by winning the Conn Smythe Trophy (over the more-deserving members of the losing Edmonton Oilers Dwayne Roloson and Chris Pronger), let alone a deal that paid him $6.3M a year, putting him in the league's top-five well-paid goalies for most its duration.

And so he will be making an average of $3.3M for the next couple of years, the Canes hoping that's how long it takes Eddie Lack to grow into the #1 goalie slot.

Except that some of the best goalies in the league - Ben Bishop and Marc-André Fleury, for starters - are rumoured to be available, and after the Montréal Canadiens traded P.K. Subban, every other GM in the league should be inquiring with GM Marc Bergevin about Carey Price's availability; though price is overrated by a lot, he's still a much better option in goal than Ward.

I mean, look at these statistics from the last few seasons:

2012-13: 17 games, 2.84 GAA, .908 save percentage
2013-14: 30 games, 3.06 GAA, .898 save percentage
2014-15: 51 games, 2.40 GAA, .910 save percentage
2015-16: 52 games, 2.41 GAA, .909 save percentage

So, in the past four seasons, he has posted unspectacular backup numbers while playing a starter's amount of games for the last two, getting paid as an elite player at his position.

The Hurricanes have failed to make the playoffs for as far as I can remember, and with good reason: their starting goalie, by failing to stop over 91% of shots against him, has been worse than a plywood dummy in over 100 games in the past two years, and 150 in the past four.

He makes for a good alternate jersey model, however, as can be attested by the game-worn jersey swatch insert version of card #14 from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite set:

It contains a white jersey swatch that's as plain as the Canes have been since the card was issued.

Jeremy Morin Autograph Card

So, in perhaps the oddest move this summer, Jeremy Morin is back with the Chicago Blackhawks following a trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets, six months after asking out of Chi-town, which kind of makes the Hawks into Hotel California, where ''you can check out any time you want, but you can never leave''.

Morin wanted a new beginning because he felt coach Joel Quenneville never really gave him a chance to show what he was all about, but to be fair, his 2 goals and 6 total points in 28 games with Columbus probably wasn't what anyone had in mind for the former second-rounder either.

The Hawks are bringing him back in the fold, banking on their knowledge of his overall game, the fact that they've liked him for a while, and the open spots in their line-up for him to try to step into the positions formerly occupied by Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp and put up some points by playing alongside either Jonathan Toews on the first line, Patrick Kane on the second or Teuvo Teravainen on the third. If he makes the team, a 40-point season is definitely not out of the question at this point, despite his prior history in the NHL (12 goals, 12 assists, 22 points in 82 games).

So far, his rights have been traded for Mathieu Schneider (the pick the Atlanta Thrashers used to select him), Dustin Byfuglien, Tim Erixon, and Saad, give or take surrounding players such as Artem Anisimov - so he's usually highly-touted.

Here he is wearing the Hawks' gorgeous third/old-school uniform, from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite set (the autographed insert version of card #148 - his Rookie card - signed on-card in thin blue sharpie):

I got this card in a trade recently, in exchange for ten signed Benchwarmers cards I had doubles of, mostly from the 2005 Signature Series set. So I too, like the Hawks, have a lot of confidence in this kid.

Marc Staal Jersey And Stick card

So, apparently contract extension talks are, uh, stalling, between Marc Staal and the New York Rangers. There are few defensemen of his caliber set to also become unrestricted free agents next July, which means the longer talks drag on, the higher his potential value will become.

His current cap hit is under $4M per year, and I could see him getting $7M on the open market; perhaps the Rangers can convince him to sign between 6 and 6.5 by offering a longer term. Although with three brothers in the Carolina Hurricanes organization, it may not be New York who gets the hometown discount...

Known primarily as a shut-down defender (which will happen when two of your three brothers are All-Star-caliber forwards) and shot-blocker, he is one of the players who learned to hone their offensive game under John Tortorella, whose qualities often get overlooked because of his attitude. He reached the 25-point mark twice under Torts, both times finishing in the plusses and with nearly 10 goals and averaging 25 minutes per game; he was a minus player before and after those seasons.

He'll be more fragile now that he's had at least one serious concussion, but will likely still be very effective when called upon. This is the fourth ''jersey and stick'' card I'll have showcased, all of them Rangers players, all from Panini's 2011-12 Luxury Suite set; it's as if someone at Panini stole a shipment of game-used equipment en route to a game...

It's card #26 in the series - just like the regular card, but thicker and with holes for the memorabilia - and shows him wearing the Blueshirts' off-white Winter Classic uniform from 2012, wearing the alternate captain's 'A'. I got it in a trade for a couple of football jersey cards and an index card signed by CFL and NFL legend Doug Flutie.

Brandon Dubinsky Jersey And Stick Card

Looks like Brandon Dubinsky has earned himself a nice payday: he signed a 6-year, $35.1M contract extension earlier today with an annual cap hit of $5.85M. Sure, that's a lot of money for a guy whose highest points total (54) was in 2010-11, but let's not forget the cap went up to just over $69M for the upcoming season and should increase by a minimum of 2.5 per year for the next five or six, meaning his cap hit in percentage will have decreased a lot when his contract comes to an end in 2021.

And while the two-time 20-goal scorer who was the 60th overall pick of the 2004 draft via the New York Rangers may not be a offensive dynamo, he was my choice to be the next captain of the Columbus Blue Jackets last year. His leadership qualities are obvious, and he's more productive come playoff time than in the regular season - his 23 points in 37 games are a decent average against better teams, and his 6 points in 6 games against the Pittsburgh Penguins while contributing to annoy Sidney Crosby two months ago were also impressive.

He knows when to step up his game, as can be attested by his career-high 10 hits in a single game occurring during a Winter Classic (2012, against the Philadelphia Flyers); he was also the MVP of the YoungStars game in 2008 and recorded a hat trick at the World Championships suiting up for Team USA.

I alluded to this card last month, which I got in a trade for a dozen (mostly common) Score Hot Rookies cards (and some extras); it's from Panini's 2011-12 Luxury Suite set (card #15), featuring a game-worn white jersey swatch with a piece of game-used stick on which you can decipher the bottom of the 'R' from the Bauer logo on top:

Sam Gagner Prime Jersey Card

Sam Gagner already had a bizarre career, starting when the Edmonton Oilers made him the 6th-overall pick 2007 to five consecutive 40-point seasons with many observers thinking he maybe should have produced 20 points more per, to holding or sharing three team records - most points in a game (8, tied with Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey), most points in a period (5, tied with Jari Kurri), and most consecutive points (11) - to 38 points in 48 games in the locked-out season to an underwhelming 10 goals and 37 points in 67 games this past season.

Which might explain why the Oilers felt sending him to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Teddy Purcell was a good thing, but it's kind of disappointing to see that sending him to the Phoenix Coyotes for a sixth-rounder also cost Tampa B.J. Crombeen...

At least he gets a fresh start, and a real shot at a #1 center role.

Here he is wearing the Oilers' mid-00s pyjama-like sub-par blue (home) uniform:

It's from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite set (card #28 in the set, featuring a regular jersey swatch and a ''prime'' one with two colours and stitching, numbered #138/150). It fits well with this Jason Spezza Prime Jersey card...

Mats Zuccarello Jersey And Stick Card

I should have kept that Derek Stepan jersey and stick card... I would now have four of those - all of them New York Rangers players.

In tonight's 3-0 loss to the Los Angeles Kings, giving the California team a 3-0 Stanley Cup Finals lead, the Rangers' best forward was Mats Zuccarello - though he did give away the puck a bit in the first period, he finished the night with 4 of his team's 32 shots on Jonathan Quick, none of which penetrated the net.

Undrafted, the Norwegian forward has made a mark for himself, with 93 points (on 30 goals) in his first 144 NHL games in parts of 4 seasons. He was a point-per-game player in the AHL as well as in the Swedish elite league, and this year he had 19 goals, 40 assists and 59 points in 77 games in New York. At 26 years of age, he has grown into his own, though you could argue growing into a 5'7'', 161-pound frame isn't all that hard.

And yet, in these playoffs, he has shown grit, maturity, and a willingness to play in high-traffic areas guys much bigger tended to shy away from.

And so I bring you this card, from Panini's 2011-12 Luxury Suite set (card #14), featuring a game-worn white jersey swatch with a piece of game-used stick:

I got it in a trade for 15 Score Hot Rookies cards (different years).

Jason Spezza Prime Jersey Card

The Vancouver Canucks took one step back in their playoff race after losing today's Heritage Classic at the hands of the Ottawa Senators - but perhaps one step in correcting past mistakes. While head coach John Tortorella said he'd choose Eddie Lack over Roberto Luongo if he had the chance to do it again, any move that brings the team closer to its post-Mike Gillis days could end up positive for the team in the long run.

And the Sens needed those two points in their own playoff race, spearheaded by their energy line and Clarke MacArthur's two-point night. One of my favourites, Jason Spezza notched an assist on the game-winning goal, his 31st this season despite a sub-par year from his go-to winger Milan Michalek (only 10 goals so far, after notching 35 in 2011-12).

Which brings me to this card, the third from my trade with Dave:

Look at that! Two swatches, one being a regular red one, the other a ''prime'' piece of jersey, complete with stitching and three colours, probably from a number on the arms or the logo on the shoulder. It's from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite (card #49, numbered 121/150).

How much do I like Spezza? Here's my Dream-Yet-Feasible-Team for this season, with their salaries to fit under the $64M cap:

David Perron (3.5) - Jason Spezza (5) - Mike Cammalleri (6)
Alex Galchenyuk (1.1) - Tomas Plekanec (5) - Milan Lucic (5.5)
Guillaume Latendresse (0.75) - Saku Koivu (2.5) - Alexandre Burrows (4.5)
Brandon Prust (2.5) -  Maxim Lapierre (1) - Jordin Tootoo (1)
Michael Bournival (0.75), Gabriel Dumont (0.5)

Andrei Markov (5.75) - Alexei Emelin (2)
Chris Phillips (3.1) - P.K. Subban (3.75)
Braydon Coburn (4.5) - Jarred Tinordi (0.9)
Paul Postma (0.7)

Jaroslav Halak (3.75) - Peter Budaj (1)

Captain: Koivu; Assistants: Spezza, Markov (away); Plekanec, Subban (home).

Yup, one is retired and another one's in the AHL. Five are Olympians, five more easily could have been.

In real life, though, I'll keep watching the Sens because Spezza is a genius at passing, and his play opens up Kyle Turris who is having a terrific season and should be ready to take over the official first-line duties the season after next and, as the leader he is, I'm sure Spezza will be more than happy to slide into the ''luxury second-line'' role when the time comes.

Derek Stepan Jersey And Stick Card

The one thing that came to mind when the New York Rangers finally got their hands on Rick Nash was ''wow, and they even got to keep all their stud defensemen and Derek Stepan''!

And now, thanks to a contest from Sports Card Info, I also get to have him!

This is card #10 in Panini's 2011-12 Luxury Suite set, and features a game-worn white jersey swatch with a piece of game-used stick. It probably becomes my most valuable card (money-wise) at the moment! (Yes, I did use to own a mint Mario Lemieux rookie card and a creased Wayne Gretzky rookie card, but lost both and over 10,000 cards in total in a 1998 flood...)

I love this card and will display it so it can be seen (away from light sources, though!), despite the one pet peeve of being a 2011-12 season card that displays 2011-12 stats on the back... if you're going to release a set after the season's over, when everything is compiled, might as well just make it a 2012-13 set...

Stepan has just finished his second NHL season and if his 17 goals were a drop from the previous season's 21, he still managed to get 51 points, which gives him 96 in total so far. Over a 20-year career, he might get to 1000 points.

The 51st overall pick in 2008 has already twice represented Team USA, once captaining the junior team to a gold medal (2010) on the strength of 14 points in 7 games, as well as at the 2011 World Championships (8 points in 7 games). He'll probably be an Olympian if the NHLPA can convince NHL owners to let the players go to Sotchi in 2014.

Ilya Kovalchuk And Dany Heatley Dual Jersey Card

Now that the Stanley Cup playoffs are over, New Jersey Devils coach Peter DeBoer confirmed what many were suspecting: that Ilya Kovalchuk was playing through a pretty bad back injury.

Many have been on Kovy's back (!) since he signed that huge contract with the Devils two seasons ago, but in  my opinion, he's one of the 5 best players in the league, with Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Pavel Datsyuk and a a revolving door of fifth candidates depending on the season. He's led Russia to consecutive World Championships - the most memorable to me being the one held in Québec City in 2008 - what a dominating performance! I didn't see all of the 2009 WC, but he was named tournament MVP...

In the NHL, he has won the Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals in a season and was on his merry way to win the Calder as top rookie when he got injured... and was surpassed by his Atlanta Thrashers teammate Dany Heatley.

I used to not mind Heatley, who has a rocket of a shot and could have 50-goal seasons playing asleep, but the fact that he has asked twice to be traded from a team (and was traded by the San Jose Sharks barely a year after acquiring him in a blockbuster trade) makes me think he may not be the ideal team player.

This awesome card holds both players, and a swatch of each one's jerseys. It's card #25 from Pacific's 2003-04 Luxury Suite set, and because it is creased in the front and slightly chipped at one corner, I managed to get it for $1.99 post-paid on Ebay. The pieces of jerseys are pristine, and match the colours they're wearing in the photos used. For the swatches alone, the piece is likely worth a lot more than what I paid for it!