Caps Preview: Alex Ovechkin Swatch Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Brenden Dillon (D), Craig Anderson (G), Michael Raffl (LW), Zdeno Chara (D)

Key Arrivals: Matt Irwin (D), xxx (LW), xxx (C/LW), xxx (C), xxx (LW), xxx (D), xxx (D), xxx (G)

Top prospects: Connor McMichael (C), Hendrix Lapierre (C), Martin Fehervary (D), Alexander Alexeyev (D), Vincent Iorio (D), Damien Riat (LW), Aliaksei Protas (C), Brent Johnson (D), Brett Leason (RW), Kody Clark (RW), Lucas Johansen (D)

Sure, the Washington Capitals' stars are all in their 30s, they have few top-tier prospects that have Toronto-based pundits salivating and have exited the playoffs early every year since their 2018 Stanley Cup win, but this nucleus remains rock-solid with the likes of Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Anthony Mantha, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov. The goaltending position is also in good hands with Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek.

What makes their odds look good:
They can outscore the opposition like few teams can and have better goaltending than the Toronto Maple Leafs. If someone in the Atlantic can eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team from the Metropolitan Division could make it to the Cup Final.

Question marks: A lot of their firepower is tied into a handful of players, who account for a lot of the team's cap space. There are depth issues, and any injury troubles would mean a huge drop in the standings for the Caps.

Outlook:
This team hired Peter Laviolette as head coach because it is still hungry for a Cup. Regular-season seeding doesn't have to matter much, the postseason is how this team will be judged, now and forever.

Prediction:
Third in the Metropolitan Division.

Fresh off a five-year deal that will realistically lead him to breaking Wayne Gretzky's career goals record, Ovechkin is a man on (another) mission. And while the chase for Gretzky's goals record is huge in itself, Ovie is also chasing Sidney Crosby's two undeserved Conn Smythes, a gimme from a handful of Toronto-based journalists who didn't want to give Phil Kessel his due. Should Ovechkin get a second one, it might even force the Hall Of Fame to waive its three-year waiting period to get him in.

Here he is wearing the team's dreadful red (home) Reebok Edge uniform from a few years back, on the swatch version of card #73 from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite collection:

It features a white game-worn jersey swatch. I got this one on Ebay for just over five bucks; its usual book value is closer to $40-50.

Hurricanes Preview: Rod Brind'Amour Autographed Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start at the end of the month, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Dougie Hamilton (D), Alex Nedeljkovic (G), James Reimer (G), Petr Mrazek (C), Warren Foegele (W), Cédric Paquette (F), Brock McGinn (LW), Morgan Geekie (C), Jake Bean (D), Jani Hakanpaa (D)

Key Arrivals: Tony DeAngelo (D), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C), Ian Cole (D), Frederik Andersen (G), Derek Stepan (C), Ethan Bear (D), Antti Raanta (G), Josh Leivo (LW), Brendan Smith (D), Jalen Chatfield (D)

Top prospects: Seth Jarvis (RW), Dominik Bok (W), Ryan Suzuki (C), Anttoni Honka (D), Noel Gunler (RW), Scott Morrow (D), Vasiliy Ponomarev (C), Jack Drury (C), Pyotr Kochetkov (G), Aleksi Heimosalmi (D), Joey Keane (D)

For a team with a low budget that moved on from captain Eric Staal only to hand the title to his little brother Jordan, that couldn't afford to give its best goalie (Nedeljkovic) $3M per season and who let its star defenseman (Hamilton) leave as a free agent to sign to a $9M cap hit with the New Jersey Devils, the Carolina Hurricanes sure turned heads when they gave Kotkaniemi an offer sheet that the Montréal Canadiens were smart not to match, but the 21-year-old forward is a nice project for the coaching staff to develop while the rest of the well-constructed team (a legitimate top line of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov, a second line that can put up points with Vincent Trocheck and Martin Necas, and the aforementioned Staal II manning the third line, with Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast able to spend time on one of the top two lines as well, and a defense that still includes Jaccob Slavin, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Jake Gardiner and new acquisitions DeAngelo, Stanley Cup winner Cole and Smith. There is a wealth of talent on that team.

What makes their odds look good:
The roster is as stacked as a team not based in Tampa Bay or Vegas can be.

Question marks: If Andersen's an upgrade over Mrazek, can he get back to his 2017 form and adequately replace Nedeljkovic instead? Will DeAngelo become a DeIstraction? Will Kotkaniemi sign a more reasonable extension in January, or has he messed up the Canes' salary structure forever?

Outlook:
This team is built to withstand roster turnovers whenever a player's production has him reach a paygrade deemed too rich for owner Tom Dundon... except for maybe Aho - a 24-year-old centre who can do it all and produce at a point per game pace - and Slavin, who remains the most underrated defenseman in the game. If they had decent goaltending, they would be (and would have been) serious contenders for years.

Prediction:
First in the Metropolitan Division.

Head coach Rod Brind'Amour seems to be the perfect person to lead this troupe and instill team spirit, which is one benefit of having a former captain behind the bench. Not only can he coach this team to success despite never having a true #1 goalie between the pipes, but he's walked the walk as well, waiting until each of his assistants and trainers got extended before signing his own three-year deal. Oh, and he won the Jack Adams Trophy as coach of the year the same day.

Although the award was well-deserved, I think most people know Brind'Amour isn't the best coach in the league, but he's the ideal bench boss for this team, just like he was a great fit as a player, and a perfect member of the Philadelphia Flyers, with whom he played 633 regular-season games and posted 235 goals and 366 assists for 601 points to go with 563 penalty minutes in the heart of the Dead Puck Era, and another 51 points (24 goals and 27 assists) and 31 penalty minutes in 56 post-season games.

On a team where the top line of Eric Lindros, John LeClair and Mikael Renberg was viewed as dominant (and the best line in the NHL), it was Brind'Amour's 13 goals that led the league in the 1997 playoffs, and his two-goal game on March 25th that eliminated the New York Rangers and sent the Flyers to the Cup Final for the first time in a decade. Here he is wearing the team's white (then-home) uniform, on card #121 from Upper Deck's 1997-98 Series 1 collection:

He signed it in black sharpie 10-15 years ago, when he was still playing for the Canes.

Blue Jackets Preview: Jakub Voracek Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Seth Jones (D), Cam Atkinson (RW), Kole Sherwood (RW), Michael Del Zotto (D)

Key Arrivals: Jakub Voracek (RW), Adam Boqvist (D), Jake Bean (D), Sean Kuraly (C), Zac Rinaldo (C)

Top prospects: Kent Johnson (C), Cole Sillinger (C), Corson Ceulemans (D), Kirill Marchenko (RW), Yegor Chinakhov (RW), Andrew Peeke (D), Daniil Tarasov (G), Dmitri Voronkov (LW), Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW), Stanislav Svozil (D), Liam Foudy (C), xxx (LW), xxx (LW)

This is a transition period for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have only a handful of players left from the failed "all-in" season three years ago. Even head coach John Tortorella left, replaced by assistant Brad Larsen. There will be growing pains while a new system is set up, in the same way an expansion team like the Seattle Kraken might face, except exclusively with home-grown young players and draft picks, not hand-picked from the entire league. The four new players coming in look solid to me (even Rinaldo, who will help instill some team spirit).

What makes their odds look good:
The Blue Jackets' top-three on defense consisting of Zach Werenski, Boqvist and Bean will be solid eventually, but the latter two must gain experience first, and it will be trial by fire at least for this season. Goalie Elvis Merzlikins is a very good goalie who may fall into a Vezina Trophy at some point (in the era of Connor Hellebuyck, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Andrei Vasilevskiy, which wil lbe extremely difficult), but he would need his team to make the playoffs for that to happen.

Question marks: Will Patrik Laine regain his offensive touch, or will he bide his time until he can leave himself?

Outlook:
The trade deadline brought in a huge leadership void when captain Nick Foligno and defenseman David Savard were traded for high draft picks, which was compounded by Jones' and Atkinson's summer departures. This will take time to rebuild.

Prediction:
8th in the Metropolitan Division.

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the one-for-one trade involving Atkinson (headed to the Philadelphia Flyers) and Voracek - on both sides. Atkinson is still a 30-goal man, a feisty little speedster, and Voracek produces at a 0.75-point-per-game clip at this stage in his career - a very good production rate for a 32-year-old player - but he's lost a bit of foot speed and is an assists collector first and foremost, and I fail to see who he will set up unless he is directly tasked with reviving Laine's game.

He knows what to expect in Columbus, however, having already been a part of a rebuild there to start his career off as the team's 7th-overall pick in 2007. This is what he looked like wearing deep blue, as seen on card #GJ-JV from Upper Deck's 2010-11 Series 1 collection and UD Game Jersey sub-set:

It features a white game-worn jersey swatch.

Jets Preview: Troy Murray: Two Autographed Cards

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Mason Appleton (C), Mathieu Perreault (C/LW), Tucker Poolman (D), Laurent Brossoit (G), Derek Forbort (D), Nate Thompson (C), Trevor Lewis (C)

Key Arrivals: Nate Schmidt (D), Brendan Dillon (D), Riley Nash (C)

Top prospects: Cole Perfetti (C), Ville Heinola (D), Dylan Samberg (D), David Gustafsson (C), Kristian Vesalainen (LW), Chaz Lucius (C), Mikhail Bergin (G), Dmitri Kuzmin (D), Simon Lundmark (D)

Now that they've added to their blue line via the low-key Norris-level Schmidt and dependable Dillon, the Winnipeg Jets are once again a force to be reckoned with, with the best goalie in the world in Connor Hellebuyck, tremendous leadership in Blake Wheeler, star power in Mark Scheifele, the NHL's most underrated forward in Kyle Connor, and another potential first-line centre in Pierre-Luc Dubois, who underperformed last season after coming in a couple of weeks late due to Canadian Covid-19 protocols and never really getting enough time to catch up, but who has proven in the past that he can carry the load. And Schmidt's arrival will send Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey in ideal slots (they were fine operating as the top-two defensemen but will be elite #2s and #3s).

What makes their odds look good:
A team with Hellebuyck between the pipes makes the playoffs. A team with him and Schmidt, Pionk and Morrissey might win a round. Add two potent offensive lines and a full cast on D (including Dylan DeMelo) and you may get a Conference Final.

Question marks: Eric Comrie is now in his 8th season trying to make it as the Jets' backup goalie. Will it work this time? He's a bit too good for the AHL and no longer has anything to prove there, he just needs to step up and have a save percentage above .905 to keep his head above water. This team is strong but not especially deep. A couple of key injuries could derail a lot of good things - and one to Hellebuyck would be deadly.

Outlook:
Don't sleep on the Jets. In a relatively weak Central Division where only the Colorado Avalanche are a powerhouse, there is a path to the third round that's wide open, and Winnipeg's talent level ranks on par with that of the St. Louis Blues, and above the Minnesota Wild, Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars.

Prediction:
Second in the Central Division.

Troy Murray was only a member of the Jets for a year and a half before the team - which had acquired him from the Chicago Blackhawks prior to the 1991-92 season - sent him back to the Hawks in February of 1993. The Jets ended up with the rights to Warren Rychel (who never played in Winnipeg) and Steven Bancroft while the Hawks landed Bryan Marchment (one of the meanest and dirtiest players of all time) and Chris Norton. Murray was by far the best player in any transaction, captaining the Jets for the duration of his stay in Canada and winning the Selke trophy in 1985-86 as well as the Stanley Cup in 1996 with the Colorado Avalanche alongside Rychel.

He was also captain of the Team Canada squad that took home the gold medal at the 1982 World Juniors.

After two stints with Chicago spanning 12 seasons and one year playing for the IHL's Chicago Wolves (posting 21 goals, 29 assists and 50 points as well as 63 penalty minutes in 81 games), Murray joined the Hawks' broadcast team upon retiring as a player, and it was announced just last week that he had been diagnosed with cancer. I wish him the best of luck in his fight for his life.

Here he is wearing the Jets' white (then-home) uniform, on card #215 from Pro Set's 1992-93 Series 1 collection:

And here he is in action pivoting in front of New York Islanders goalie (and fellow current broadcaster) Glenn Healy, with Jeff Norton in possession of the puck:

Both were signed in blue sharpie while he was in town with the Hawks, around 2015-2017.

Dougie Hamilton Autographed Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

As expected, Dougie Hamilton cashed in as the major piece available in free agency today, signing a seven-year, $63M deal (worth $9M per) with the... New Jersey Devils, who now have two offensively-minded right-shot defensemen making over $9M, with P.K. Subban already in the fold.

The Devils will be Hamilton's fourth NHL team, after being drafted by the Boston Bruins (9th overall in 2011) - then-coached by Claude Julien, who has a tendency to have his GMs get rid of the good, young talent on his rosters, a fate Tyler Seguin and Phil Kessel also shared during his stint in Beantown - then traded to the Calgary Flames in a large deal only to be dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes in a blockbuster move after three seasons in the C Of Red. That's four teams that recognize his all-world talent at creating offense, three of which didn't think was enough to convince them to keep him. We know Julien views raw talent as "uncoachable", but what of the other two teams?

For starters, the Flames sent the Canes Hamilton, a promising prospect in Adam Fox (this year's Norris Trophy winner) and middle-six grinder Micheal Ferland for stop-four defender Noah Hanifin and first-line winger Elias Lindholm, which in retrospect may seem lopsided but did fill two immediate needs for them with Fox being a project that could have not ended up working - and in fact did not become who he is now with the team he was traded to.

As for Carolina, they are entitled to think that Hamilton's underlying elite possession numbers were at least partly the result of playing alongside Jaccob Slavin, perhaps the league's best shut-down defenseman - and that could very well be true, too, but Hamilton surely had his say in that as well. I'm not saying I would have paid him that much money (he's overpaid by $1.5M in this economic context mixed with a flat cap, in my opinion), but I would bet on him being my top-pair right-shot defender for the next five years and would have been willing to tack on two extra years just to make sure I get him, yes.

The Hurricanes seem intent on giving the impression that they will low-ball everyone on their team not named Rod Brind'Amour, from waiting until Sebastian Aho signed an offer sheet elsewhere a couple of summers ago to letting go their only good goalie of the past decade this summer after squabbling over half a million with Alex Nedeljkovic and now lettin gHamilton walk for nothingafter a failed postseason run. They're deep enough on defense that they may not feel it as much, though, and they're probably betting they already have his replacement in Jake Gardiner, who has been relwegated to a lesser role since signing with the team as a free agent ahead of the 2019-20 season.

The Devils will be Hamilton's third consecutive red uniform, and here is what he looked like in one of the many Hurricanes home garbs, on card #436 from the 2019-20 O-Pee-Chee collection by Upper Deck:

You'll notice a sharp difference between this blue-sharpied signature and the one I featured last January; it's the sign of a player becoming confident in his star status mixed with the autograph requester being an overweight, out of shape, bearded man in his late thirties/early forties, so the player's not even trying to scribble his name anymore and thinks it'll stop me from making a profit off the sale of the card. Except I don't sell the cards I put up here (bur he doesn't know that).