Lightning Preview: Ryan McDonagh Autographed Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this collectibles blog and my personal one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start in a couple of days, several players haven't found a team yet, (at least) three star players have active trade requests, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much left to do.

Key Exits: Corey Perry (RW), Darren Raddysh (D), Nick Paul (C), Oliver Bjorkstrand (RW), Mitchell Chaffee (RW), Declan Carlile (D)

Key Arrivals: John Carlson (D), Dennis Hildeby (G), Mads Sogaard (G), Ilya Mikheyev (RW), Jeffrey Viel (LW), Jansen Harkins (C), Michael Callahan (D)

Top prospects: Sam O'Reilly (C, 19), Connor Geekie (C, 22), Oleg Kulebiakin (RW, 18), Ethan Gauthier (RW, 21), Benjamin Rautiainen (C, 21), Dylan Duke (LW, 23), Ethan Czata (C, 19)

The Tampa Bay Lightning will do as the Tampa Bay Lightning will do, which is to sign their core (mostly) veteran players long-term and rotate the support group in and out to bring in new energy, all while developping a seemingly endless supply of NHL-ready players via the AHL's Syracuse Crunch. Oh - and let players who have earned massive pay increases leave town to make their money elsewhere, like Raddysh here leaving in free agency for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

What makes their odds look good:
Oh, just two-time Art Ross and (reigning) Hart winner Nikita Kucherov, Norris winner (and six-time finalist) Victor Hedman, two-time (and reigning) Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, with a supporting cast of elite players like Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Brayden Point, with two-time Stanley Cup-winning (and Team Canada) head coach Jon Cooper.

Question marks:
Can the defense hold up their part of the deal? Will age catch up with the veteran players? Isn't Kucherov on an expiringcontract - and is that a problem?

Outlook:
The playoffs are a whole other beast, as can be attested by the Bolts' five-straight first-round eliminations after two straight Stanley Cups, but in terms of their roster beating other rosters more often than not during an 84-game regular season, I feel that part's taken care of. One of the top three spots in their division is within reach, and factoring in perhaps a few rest days and injuries here and there, they probably end up second to their State rival Florida Panthers.

Prediction:
2nd in the Atlantic Division.

I have a lot of time for Ryan McDonagh, a former Montréal Canadiens first-round draft pick (12th overall in 2007). You might recall (and still be angry/befuddled about the fact that) he was infamously traded to the New York Rangers, with Doug Janik, three-time 20-goal scorer Chris Higgins and fellow prized prospect Pavel Valentenko for Scott Gomez, Michael Busto and Tom Pyatt. It was, of course, a complete fleece, with McDonagh eventually captaining the Rangers (2014-2018) to some level of success, including two especially long playoff runs, while Gomez went an entire calendar year with the Habs without scoring a goal. In the Canadiens' defense, they had drafted David Fischer, a fellow Minnesotan defenseman with similar College stats as McDonagh, in the first round of the previous season, and he was looking like a bust and the team chose to cut ties with him for a compensatory second-round pick; they didn't want a repeat situation, and were convinced Gomez would replace Saku Koivu as their first-line centre.

In 2018, McDonagh was part of another fleecing, but this time it was the Rangers who got the worst of the deal, sending their captain along with (their current captain!) J.T. Miller to Tampa Bay for Vladislav Namestnikov, Brett Howden, Libor Hajek, a first round pick in the 2018 draft (which turned out to be Nils Lundkvist) and a conditional second-round pick in the 2019 draft (Karl Henriksson). Miller would be traded again (to the Vancouver Canucks) after just two seasons, missing out on the consecutive Cups and subsequent Final that McDonagh had a huge part in.

A salary cap crunch forced the Lightning to let important depth pieces of their lineup go, such as McDonagh (traded to the Nashville Predators), Blake Coleman (free agency), Alex Killorn (free agency), Patrick Maroon (free agency), Ondrej Palat (free agency), and Yanni Gourde (expansion draft, Seattle Kraken), with GM Julien BriseBois eventually bringing McDonagh and Gourde back into the fold. Which makes this card relevant again:

That's card #455 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee collection, which he signed in-person after a game against the Habs more than 7 years ago. OPC cards are among my favourite to get signed, because they are more affordable than many other brands, and they are also less glossy, so the signatures tend to "stick" onto them much better.

Habs Preview: Christian Dvorak: Two Autographed Cards

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C), Phillip Danault (C), Corey Perry (RW), Jordan Weal (C), Cale Fleury (D), Jon Merrill (D), Tomas Tatar (LW), Eric Staal (C), Erik Gustafsson (D)

Key Arrivals: David Savard (D), Cédric Paquette (LW), Mathieu Perreault (C/LW), Jean-Sébastien Dea (C), Mike Hoffman (LW), Chris Wideman (D), Sami Niku (D), Samuel Montembeault (G)

Top prospects: Cole Caufield (RW), Cayden Primeau (G), Kaiden Guhle (D), Mattias Norlinder (D), Jordan Harris (D), Jan Mysak (LW), Ryan Poehling (C), Oliver Kapanen (C), Luke Tuch (LW), Logan Mailloux (D), Gianni Fairbrother (D), Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (LW), Joël Teasdale (LW)

I don't buy that the Montréal Canadiens played in the weakest division last year, because they didn't: the West had the three California teams, which were essentially 30 free wins for the Vegas Golden Knights, while the Habs had to contend with Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Connor Hellebuyck in any given game while the rest of the league faced much easier matchups down the middle and in net.

What makes their odds look good:
The team gained a lot of experience during last season's playoff run to the Stanley Cup Final, and many of the returning faces up front (Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli, Caufield, Josh Anderson, Joel Armia) have room to grow their game, the leadership rock remains stable with Brendan Gallagher despite Shea Weber's probable absence, and the defense is a brick wall only the Tampa Bay Lightning can pierce... year after year.

Question marks: Will Weber's health force him to retire? Which is the real Carey Price: the regular-season bottom-dweller of the past four seasons, or the quality playoff starter from last year's run? Will the team actually keep Jonathan Drouin, or is he off to clear his mind with former teammates in Colorado, or adding to a top-six in Edmonton?

Outlook:
The Atlantic is stacked. The Bolts remain the gold standard, the Florida Panthers finally delivered on par with their talent, the Toronto Maple Leafs can outscore their uncertainty between the pipes, the Ottawa Senators are on the rise, and the Boston Bruins, although older and stating to see core pieces retire, can still hold their own; the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres don't matter in the playoff conversation, but finishing ahead of the fifth-place team in the Metropolitan does, as the team with the most points in slots 7 and 8 in the Conference make it to the dance, so the Bs, Sens and Habs may cancel each other out in the end.

Prediction:
Tied for 4th in the Atlantic Division, outside the playoff picture.

Going by comments on social media, Montréal fans do not seem to have a fucking clue how important Danault was to this team. His line with Tatar and Gallagher was the most potent for goals and shot differentials at five-on-five for the past three years combined, and in any given year also held their ground and were top-three, matching favourably with the likes of McDavid/Draisaitl/whoever, Brad Marchand/Patrice Bergeron/David Pastrnak and Gabriel Landeskog/Nathan MacKinnon/Mikko Rantanen. Even when they didn't score, their 60-point pace mixed with defensive acumen made them a better a more effective unit than any other unit in the league, including those with multiple 100-point players. In last year's playoffs, Danault even took most draws when his line wasn't on the ice.

Acquired in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes, Christian Dvorak is a 25-year-old centre who wins faceoffs, scores 15-20 goals a year and collects some 45-60 points (pro-rated) at $4.45M per, for four more seasons. He covers 80% of what Danault brought, with added net-front presence in the offensive zone and is the epitome of "cost certainty", which is nice to have under a salary cap. He cost more (a first-rounder and a second-rounder) than the Habs received for Kotkaniemi (a first and a third), who could hit the 50-point mark this season and be a very good player five years from now - although that is no certainty, especially to those who saw him fall to the ice five times per game for the past three years. Like Price and Alex Galchenyuk before him, "KK" was rushed to the Big Show way too soon for his own good.

The Canadiens' centre depth took a big hit this summer, and I'm afraid Dvorak has big shoes to fill, although casual fans might not realize just how clownesque they really are - it's a good thing McDavid and Draisaitl are in the Pacific Division this year. Dvorak has evolved nicely from the 2016 World Juniors' bronze-winning Team USA squad as a much more complete 200-foot player, but he is not the player who accumulated five more points than Mitch Marner (121 to 116) when both were teammates in their final year of Juniors playing for the OHL's London Knights.

This is what he looked like in recent years, wearing the Coyotes' purple and black (home) uniform on card #156 from Upper Deck's 2019-20 Series 1 set:

And here he is wearing their correspondig white (away) uniform, on card #144 from the 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee collection by UD:

He signed them in (fading) black sharpie before Covid-19 hit.

Ducks Preview: Isac Lundestrom Autograph Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start soon, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Haydn Fleury (D), Danton Heinen (LW), Ryan Miller (G), David Backes (F), Carter Rowney (C/RW)

Key Arrivals: Greg Pateryn (D), Buddy Robinson (RW)

Top prospects: Trevor Zegras (C), Lukas Dostal (G), Jamie Drysdale (D), Mason McTavish (C), Jacob Perreault (RW), Olen Zellweger (D), Brayden Tracey (LW), Jackson LaCombe (D), Sam Colangelo (RW), Sasha Pastujov (LW)

The Anaheim Ducks have been rebuilding for a few years at this point, and young guns and prospcts like Isac Lundestrom, Zegras, Max Comtois, Drysdale, Dostal, Perreault and McTavish will be able to grow together and have eahc other's backs while they take steps to grow as a unit - but I do believe success will only come after head coach Dallas Eakins makes way for someone else... possibly new AHL bench boss Joël Bouchard.

What makes their odds look good:
Zegras begins the season as one of two heavy favourites for the Calde Trophy (with the Montréal Canadiens' Cole Caufield), and the Ducks also have one of two front-runners to start games for Team USA at the Olympics in John Gibson, which means they're also set at the most important position. You can also check "leadership" and "Stanley Cup champion" with captain Ryan Getzlaf returning to the team despite being a free agent in the off-season.

Question marks: Depth and ice time will be an issue this year, with the likes of Kevin Shattenkirk, Hampus Lindholm and Jakob Silfverberg earning top dollar but delivering very little in return for the past few seasons.

Outlook:
The rebuild is not over yet and the current coach doesn't seem to have the magic touch that will accelerate all the youngsters' developments at the same time. Expect another year or two before playoff contention, but a lot of these kids have the right stuff. A good first step in the right direction would be to finish ahead of the San Jose Sharks this season.

Prediction:
8th in the Pacific Division.

Lundeström was a first-round pick (23rd overall) in 2018, and his draft class is starting to establish itself in the NHL, like Andrei Svechnikov (2nd), Brady Tkachuk (4th), Quinn Hughes (7th), Adam Boqvist (8th), Evan Bouchard (10th), Oliver Wahlstrom (11th), Noah Dobson (12th), Joel Farabee (14th), K'Andre Miller (22nd), Philipp Kurachev (120th), and Yegor Sharangovich (141st). Others started strongly but have since taken a step back, like Rasmus Dahlin (1st) and Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3rd), while others are still adjusting to their environment, such as Filip Zadina (6th), Liam Foudy (18th), and Rasmus Sandin (29th), but players like Joe Veleno (30th) and Jacob Bernard-Docker (26th) might start showing that patience is indeed its own reward.

Lundeström is NHL-ready, having posted a point-per-game average in Sweden's second division last season (caliber below the AHL and KHL, on par with or a little above that of the Swiss League). He had posted 21 points (6 goals, 15 assists) in 43 games with the AHL's San Diego Gulls as a 19-year-old in 2019-20.

He is quick, and despite only being 6' tall and 185 pounds, he is pretty good at protecting the puck; he projects as a 50-60-point player who can handle second-line duties or make players on the third line produce like second-liners.

Internationally, he won silver medals at the 2016 U-18s and 2018 World Juniors, as well as bronze with Team Sweden at the 2015 U-17s. Here he is wearing the Ducks' white (away) uniform, on the signed version of card #R-IL from Upper Deck's 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee Platinum set and Rookie Auto sub-set:

It's signed on-card in blue sharpie.

Pavel Buchnevich Autograph Card

(team links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

The New York Rangers made waves yesterday by trading 26-year-old Pavel Buchnevich to the St. Louis Blues for Samuel Blais and a second-round pick; I've read a lot of nonsense online about how the Rangers got fleeced in the deal, essentially giving up a first-liner for a bottom-six forward and a pick that will at best be a plugger - but that is simply not true. Blais often played on the Blues' top unit, making space for Ryan O'Reilly and David Perron to create plays, and was a heart-and-soul member of the 2019 Stanley Cup-winning team. Buchnevich, on the other hand, finally played up to his offensive potential, posting a career-high 48 points in just 56 games - two more than he had put up in 68 games in 2019-20 - just in time to cash in on a four-year deal worth $5.8M per season; he was arbitration-eligible and could have gone to free agency next summer.

That's deifnitely top-6 money, and he's definitely a top-6 talent, but some Blues fans may be asking too much of him to fill in for injury-depleted former star winger Vladimir Tarasenko - prime-level Tarasenko was elite, whereas Buchnevich's upside is a one- or two-time All-Star "at best" (it's still pretty freaking good on a team that won a Cup recently and has hardware winners).

Both teams will get what they want out of this trade,but chances are the Rangers have a better shot at feeling like they got more than expected, whereas the Blues may end up 115% underwhelmed compared to what they felt they were obtaining.

Here is Buchnevich on one of my favourite themed sets, the Signature Pucks sub-set from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Trilogy collection, wearing the Rangers' classic white (away) uniform and featuring a silver-sharpied autograph on a minuscule puck embedded in the card itself:

That level of penmanship is rare nowadays. This card once had a book value of roughly $15, it now oscillates between $40-50.

Anthony Mantha Jersey Card

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The comments sections of all hockey news sources (and pretend-pundits) were adamant that Detroit Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman had essentially committed highway robbery when he traded power forward Anthony Mantha to the Washintgton Capitals for - admittedly - a large haul, namely forwards Richard Panik and Jakub Vrana, plus a first-round pick in 2021 and a second-rounder in 2022. A lot of those folks were saying Vrana himself was worth Mantha because they had similar statistics this season.

Yeah... no. Sure, Mantha only has 11 goals so far, but that placed him first on the Wings, whereas Vrana's 11 put him in a three-way tie for fourth on the team, and he played in five more games than Tom Wilson, who would have jumped ahead anytime soon. Mantha's struggles this season can be attributed to how bad the roster in Detroit is, and how coach Jeff Blashill has allowed every single individual on it to regress.

Mantha is about to enter his prime as an elite-scoring power forward - think "Tom Wilson with more goals and no suspensions". He went from 24 goals and 48 points in 80 games 2017-18 to 25 goals and 48 points in just 67 games (injury) in 2018-19 to 16 goals and 38 points in 43 games in last year's Covid-reduced season. He's about to enter a sequence of four or five 30-goal seasons in a six-year span, and now that he's surrounded by elite talent in Washington, he can actualy aim for 40 once or twice. I don't know that Vrana will be a permanent fixture in Detroit, if only because their structure seems to rely so much on having three second lines and no elite talent up front, which leaves me with the impression tha the could be dealt for a few picks himself at next year's deadline.

Mantha sure started things off on the right foot with a goal and an assist in his first game as a Cap, and he's been quoted as being ecstatic about moving from a last-place team to a Stanely Cup contender. I'm not sure their defense compares to that of the Tampa Bay Lightning or Colorado Avalanche, and we have yet to see them in action against the Toronto Maple Leafs or Edmonton Oilers, and their goaltending is unproven in the postseason, but the Capitals have shown that they can dominate against the Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins, at least, and having a sniper of Mantha's caliber on their second line will give them that much more of a chance.

Here he is wearing the Wings' white (away) uniform on card #GJ-AM from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Series 1 collection and UD Game Jersey sub-set:

It features a matching white game-worn jersey swatch.

Christian Wolanin Autographed Custom Card

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Three days after clearing waivers, Christian Wolanin was traded to the Los Angeles Kings while Michael Amadio will make his way to the Ottawa Senators.

Waivers nowadays are a bit of a crapshoot, with the majoriy of players staying put, but more and more moves occur not when someone is grabbed on the wire - which seems to be more of a goaltending thing recently - but instead a player getting traded with another contract going back the other way, which serves two purposes: the first takes into consideration the 50-contract limit, whereby NHL teams cannot have more than 50 players signed to an NHL-accessible deal at once; the second makes acquiring the player a lower-risk proposition, because having already cleared waivers once, said player can be assigned directly to the taxi squad or AHL/ECHL affiliate without needing to pass through waivers again, and the current Collective Bargaining Agreement no longer includes the provision in which players called up from the minors had to clear waivers again. In Wolanin's case, he will report to the AHL's Ontario Reign until the Kings see fit to give him a shot at a roster spot. My guess is the team wants their own staff to evaluate where he's at in his development and if he looks solid after two to five games where he accumulates a point per game or something near that, he'll be called up for regular NHL duties.

He had fallen out of favour with Sens head coach D.J. Smith, and the team's depth on the left side currently starts with Thomas Chabot logging the most minutes and Mike Reilly eating another chunk; in terms of prospects, Erik Brannstrom has also been singled out by Smith as not having a complete enough game at the moment to warrant second-pairing minutes but was still ranked ahead of Womanin, and College prospect Jake Sanderson was probably also slotted ahead of him as early as next season.

At 26, Wolanin should be entering his prime, but injuries have derailed his development a bit, having only suited up in 12 professional games during the 2019-20 season. Here he is wearing the Sens' red (home, 2007-2020) uniform on a signed custom card by BG:

Ironically (considering his defensive short-comings), he is, of course, former Québec Nordiques shutdown defenseman Craig Wolanin's son. Like Paul Stastny, Christian was born in Québec and holds dual citizenship, but considers himself American.

Alexander Wennberg Dual Jersey Card

(team and set links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

Alexander Wennberg reminds me a lot of Lars Eller, in that both were middle-of-the-first-round draft picks - Wennberg was selected 14th overall in 2013 by the Columbus Blue Jackets while Eller was chosen 13th in 2007 by the St. Louis Blues - who had all the tools to become top-six centers (size, passing abilities, decent speed, the ability to protect the puck, power along the boards) and even if they failed to reach their upside, their ability to play sound hockey away from the puck could justify their getting drafted relatively early regardless; there were going to be surprises and/or better-developped forwards picked later on, but they could at worst hold their own on a third line.

Eller was traded once to the Montréal Canadiens for a #1A goalie in Jaroslav Halak and subsequently fetched two second-rounders when acquired by the Washington Capitals, with whom he won a Stanley Cup as the #3 guy down the middle. He's proven to be a 15-goal, 30-point man, with a high of 38 in 2017-18, but he's a clutch playoff performer, with two decent runs (13 points in 17 games in 2013-14 and 18 in 24 games in the 2017-18 Cup run) under his belt.

Wennberg played his cards right in that he posted a career year in a contract year, parlaying a 13-goal, 46-assist and 59-point season in 2016-17 into a six-year deal paying him $29.4M, for a cap hit of $4.9M, while his production dwindled to 35, 25 and 22 points, even prompting the team to try to re-launch him by putting him on Pierre-Luc Dubois's wing with Emil Bemstrom. The Jackets ended up buying him out in the 2020 offseason, and he signed a one-year "show me" deal with the Florida Panthers, whose GM Bill Zito was a long-time assistant in Columbus.

Despite some playing time alongside Jonathan Huberdeau (34 points in 28 games), Wennberg's 13 points in 28 games rank him tied with Frank Vatrano, far behind the points totals of fellow centermen Aleksander Barkov (34) and Carter Verhaeghe (22). Still, head coach Joel Quenneville likes what he sees in terms of possession numbers and quality puck control.

Here he is one year removed from his career year, sporting the Blue Jackets' white (away) uniform, on the dual jersey insert version of card #98 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Artifacts collection:

It features a couple of dark blue game-worn jersey swatches and is numbered #94/165.

Drake Batherson Autographed Card

(team and set links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

Just hours ago, Ottawa Senators right winger Drake Batherson tied a team record with a six-game goal streak, joining the likes of Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson and Bob Kudelski as one of the franchise's premier snipers.

The 22-year-old is solidifying a solid start to his professional career, having played in the 2019 and 2020 AHL All-Star Games and now posting solid numbers (17 points in 24 games on a team at the bottom of its division) in the NHL. He had previously been a point-per-game player in the LHJMQ and scored a team-leading 7 goals in 7 games in helping Team Canada to a gold medal at the 2018 World Juniors on a stacked roster that included Carter Hart, Cale Makar, Sam Steel, Jordan Kyrou, Brett Howden, Maxime Comtois and Dillon Dubé.

He's certainly silenced the voices that were calling for him to get relegated to the taxi squad after a 16-game goalless drought. I'm not certain he'll remain on the top unit when the team becomes a Stanley Cup contender, but he is definitely making a case to remain in the top-six up front for the foreseeable future.

Here is a close-up of his face on card #P-54 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Series 2 collection and UD Rookie Portraits sub-set:

He signed it in blue sharpie and returned it by mail last year, with his jersey number (79) tagged at the end, matching that of his helmet on the card; he has switched to #19 since 2019, though, following in Spezza's footsteps with the likes of Derick Brassard and Alexei Yashin. I certainly don't mind having him represent #79 in my Sens Numbers Project!

Panthers Preview: Noah Juulsen Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: 2020 is a different beast and requires adaptability; in my case, it means the joint posts with my "main/personal" blog will not be in the "player here/analysis there" format but rather the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written. Caveats: at this point, despite the season being set to start in Mid-January, several impact players haven't found a team yet and quite a few teams are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

New GM Bill Zito will get a chance to put his stamp on this roster with new Scouting Director Shane Churla, but make no mistake: this roster built by Dale Tallon will the the second one after the 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks that head coach Joel Quenneville will lead to Stanley Cup contention for another man.

What makes their odds look good:
The lineup that Tallon was able to put together that makes up this core is solid: captain Aleksander Barkov is one of the premier two-way #1 centers in the NHL and his linemate Jonathan Huberdeau is one of the most underrated forwards in the game; both have surpassed the 90-point mark in this scoring-depleted era; Aaron Ekblad is becoming the elite defender Tallon thought he would be; bad season or not (and it was bad), Sergei Bobrovsky remains the only active two-time Vezina winner and now knows what he has in front of him (and has François Allaire and Roberto Luongo to help fix his game); and there is good, young talent on the depth chart in Owen Tippett, Anton Lundell and Grigori Denisenko up-front, and Spencer Knight is one of the most highly-touted goaltending prospects in the world. All of that talent is not just "very good" but "elite".

Question marks:
Was Bob's season a one-off or the start of a decline? How quickly will Keith Yandle's own decline happen and will it force the team to buy out his contract? Who will back Bob up, Chris Driedger or Samuel Montembeault, and is either one ready to play at least once per week in this condensed schedule?

Outlook:
I've been on the Panthers train for years and like a bad gambler, I'm still looking at those pieces and feeling confident they can pull it together, and I like the gambles on young once-promising prospects Gustav Forsling (24, acquired on the waiver wire yesterday) and Noah Juulsen (23, acquired earlier today via waivers).

Prediction:
Fourth in the Central Division.

Yes, fourth, which is as much an indictment of the Nashville Predators' lack of offense and of the Minnesota Wild's unconvincing rebuild as a testament to the Panthers' (slow and) steady march towards respectability.

Which brings me to Juulsen, a late first-round pick (26th overall in 2015) by the Montréal Canadiens, following a near point-per-game season as a defenseman with the WHL's Everett Silvertips.

Juulsen is not the fastest skater by any means, but he gets where he needs to be in respectable time, is rarely out of a play or out of positiion and is willing to take a hit to make a play that he sees possible. He's very cerebral, a skill that tends to gain value for defensemen between the ages of 25 and 33 but that may show him a tenth of a second late in extreme-pressure situations before that - such as manning the point on the power play and keeping the puck in the zone against two opponents at once. His patience with the puck is appreciated, however.

For now, even though he played his first games as a 20-year-old, he's been hampered by vision and concussion issues from two seperate hits to the head (including a puck to the face) in the same game, so while he still holds first-round pedigree and youth, the focus should be in allowing him to feel comfortable enough to play in a highly-competitive environment again, something that would perhaps be better to learn in the AHL - still a development league, after all - than in the NHL, where some mercenaries play mean.

Here he is sporting the Habs' red (home) uniform on card #RM-J from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Series 2 collection and Rookie Materials sub-set:

It features a matching jersey swatch that the back of the card says "has been certified to The Upper Deck Company as having been worn by the featured player". I wonder how many lawyers were required to write and review that sentence.

Internationally, Juulsen has a silver medal with Team Canada from the World Juniors.

Bolts Preview: Nikita Kucherov Jersey Card

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: 2020 is a different beast and requires adaptability; in my case, it means the joint posts with my "main/personal" blog will not be in the "player here/analysis there" format but rather the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written. Caveats: at this point, despite the season being set to start in Mid-January, several impact players haven't found a team yet and quite a few teams are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

One team whose cap cunnundrum was solved today is the Tampa Bay Lightning, who not only have the strongest team on paper but are also the reigning Stanley Cup champions. Unfortunately, the $9.5M in cap space comes in the form of an injury to star Nikita Kucherov that will see him miss the entire regular-season.

What makes their odds look good:
Despite losing Kucherov, they essentially replace him in-house with the return of captain Steven Stamkos, who missed half of last season and all but one playoff game, and a forward corps that still includes Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn, Blake Coleman, Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde, which means goals will still come often for the Bolts. Add a Vezina-winning goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Norris and Conn Smythe winner in Victor Hedman, a possible future Norris winner in Mikhail Sergachev, former All-Star Ryan McDonagh and a good support cast on defense and you've got one of the best teams in the salary cap era (although weaker than last season's with the departures of Zach Bogosian, Kevin Shattenkirk and the inevitable one or two pieces to leave for cap room (Johnson is a regular on the rumour circuit while I personally believe Braydon Coburn might fall victim to a bottom-role salary purge).

Question marks:
The only question mark I would normally have would be with head coach Jon Cooper suffering from messaging fatigue, but a Cup buys him leeway even if he fares badly during this shortened season, although I do not see that happening.

Outlook:
Tampa woud be first in any division, but placing them in the Central means they can even rest players during back-to-backs and move guys in and out of the Taxi Squad in the hopes of staying fresh for the playoffs. If the players accept to sacrifice statistical milestones for legitimate shots at multiple championships, that's one way to to have a clear path to another one.

Prediction:
First in the Central Division.

Kucherov's presence will be missed. While he's taken up more and more room as the years have passed - room that became legitimate as he had led the team in scoring for the past five seasons - this has been Stamkos' and Hedman's team for roughly a decade at this point, and #86 has merely been filling up the opposition's net for them, enough to have played in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 All-Star Games, which is where this card comes into play:

It's card #AS-NK from Upper Deck's 2018-19 SP Game-Used Edition and All-Star Skills Fabrics sub-set, featuring a swatch from the jersey in the picure, used in the 2018 NHL All-Star Skills Competition. Because of the talent in Tampa, Kucherov's career has been a bit overlooked at times, but he has three types of impressive numbers.

First, the comparisons:
His 529 points (212 goals, 317 points) in 463 games over the past six seasons are tied with Chicago Blackhawks forward Patrick Kane for the most in the NHL.

He also holds Lightning team records (the same team tghat once employed Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St-Louis):

Most Playoff Points - 95
Most Career Playoff Goals - 36
Most Career Playoff Assists - 59
Most points in a single season, 128 (2018–19)
Most assists in a single season, 87 (2018–19)
Most points in a single calendar month, 30 (2018–19)
Most assists in a single calendar month, 21 (2018–19)
Most consecutive games with a point to start a season, 11 (2017–18)
Most consecutive games with a goal to start a season, 7 (2017–18)
Most points in a single playoff season, 34 (2019–20)
Most assists in a single playoff season, 27 (2019–20)

He also holds two NHL records:

Most assists in a single season by a winger, 87 (2018–19) (Shared with Jaromír Jágr)
Most points in a single season by a Russian-born player, 128 (2018–19)

And he's still just 27 years old!

Sens Previews: Maxime Lajoie Autographed Card

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: 2020 is a different beast and requires adaptability; in my case, it means the joint posts with my "main/personal" blog will not be in the "player here/analysis there" format but rather the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written. Two more caveats: at this point, the NHL has not even confirmed the division make-ups yet despite the season being set to start a month from now, and several impact players such as 25-to-30-goal scorer Mike Hoffman and 20-goal journeyman forward Anthony Duclair, among others, haven't found a team yet. And quite a few teams are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

That being said, let's start with the one division we're pretty sure is going to happen if only because of the border situation, the Canadian Division, and the Ottawa Senators.

Because Ottawa didn't qualify for the NHL's Return To Play in August, it will be roughly 11 months between stints ont he cie when the team finally hits the frozen surface. On the outs are Duclair, local boy and two-way prodigy Jean-Gabriel Pageau, once-presumed captain Mark Borowiecki, veteran defender Ron Hainsey, long-time strarting goalie Craig Anderson, Masterton Trophy winner Bobby Ryan, and free agents Mikkel Boedker and Jayce Hawryluk, replaced by 28-goal scorer Evgenii Dadonov, former 30-goal promising prospect Alex Galchenyuk, two-time Stanley Cup-winning goalie Matt Murray (one of which was deserving of Conn Smythe votes), stay-at-home bruising defenseman Erik Gudbranson, Austin Watson, Josh Brown and Logan Shaw.

Dadonov is an improvement over All-Star Duclair, Murray essentially rolls the clock back five years on prime-years Anderson, and the rest are pretty much lateral moves, which means any true measure of climbing in the standings will have to come from within, i.e. the emergence of hime-grown talent - and there is plenty of talent to do so, in time.

What makes their odds look good:
Thomas Chabot is a true #1 defenseman, and is signed until 2028; he will again share the ice with Nikita Zaitsev until the likes of Erik Brannstrom, Jake Sandersson, and Maxime Lajoie can take up spots on the second pair.

Up-front, Brady Tkachuk is eastablishing himself as a true star, Tim Stuetzle should become a first- or second-line center, and Logan Brown, John Norris and Drake Batherson look like blue-chip prospects who can make an impact quick;y, so much so that Colin White - who signed a lurative deal not too long ago - could find himself on the outside looking in. These players have all domonated in Juniors as well as lower-leve lpro leagues, all that remains to be seen is how much they can improve in getting to their prime to perform in the bext league in the world.

What's fun about a 56-game schedule is that two relatively lon gwin streaks can net you a playoff participation, and momentum can catch quickly when facing the same teams over and over again.

Question marks:
Depth.

Anders Nilsson would need to be able to play 15 to 20 top-level games behind Murray for the Sens to remain in the mix, not allowing over 3 goals per game and hovering around the .900 save percentage mark like last season. Filip Gustavsson has been keeping in shape in Sweden's Allsvenskan (second division) and may earn a few games between the pipes himself. Chris Tierney has been good as a middle-six pivot but would best be served as a permanent third-liner for this team to contend; Artem Anisimov is trending downwards. On defense, Gudbranson, Mike Reilly and Brown will see some time on a second pairing when they ideally should be fighting for a spot on the third pair instead.

Outlook:
Not this year, but soon!

There are still too many questions marks as the kids have not yet cemented the positions they'll be performing in for the next half-decade (apart from, say, Tkachuk, Dadonov, Chabot and Murray), but as other teams' windows (Pittsburgh Penguins, Calgary Flames, Nashville Predators, Boston Bruins) start to close and their salary caps start to tighten too drastically, Ottawa will be one of the teams on the rise to take up their spot.

Prediction:
Seventh - and last - in the Canadian Division.

Which brings me to Lajoie, who in my opinion is a couple of years away from cementing his position as a top-four D in the NHL. He's a great skater who is willing and able to improvise - including swift and brisk stops and starts - with his feet, is dependable in his own end and also a very good laymaker with an accurate shot. Despite all of this, he plays relatively conservatively, always to his strengths, seemingly never taking risks.

Here he is wearing the Sens' white (away) uniform on card #351 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Parkhurst collection:

It's his "Rookie" card, and he signed it in blue sharpie during the 2018-19 season, in which he suited up in 56 games for the Sens, accumuliating 15 points in the process - the exact same numbers he ahd posted with the AHL's Belleville Senators the year before. His progression is steady. He and Wade Redden are the only two Senators defensemen to ever score in their NHL debuts.

Evgeni Malkin Jersey Card

The next time we'll see live hockey being played is pretty much up in the air at the moment, with all Europeans leagues now shut down, the Juniors leagues on hiatus and the AHL and NHL still tentative about their own returns to play and whether they'll play full or shortened seasons.

I thought this was as good a time as any to open up about my own collecting life in the meantime.

A few months ago, I watched my internet buddy Sal Barry break open a couple of boxes of Upper Deck's 2019-20 Ice cards with Puck Junk mate Tim Parish where Tim pulled a Nick Suzuki card, saying it was chipped and offering it up for trade.

I mistakenly thought it was a jersey card, so I offered a ten-year-old Evgeni Malkin Panini jersey card for it, which was accepted. A week and ahalf later, the Suzuki card was on my desk, looking great despite not being a swatch card at all; I plan on getting it signed by the man himself eventually, though.

The only problem is, the Malkin (and additional autographed Eric Tangradi cards I had added as a bonus for the Pittsburgh Penguins fan I was trading with) never got to their destination.

It doesn't happen often, but it does sometimes.

I worked out a deal that I'd get him a new Malkin to repalce it, so I found a similar one, with a gold swatch instead of a blue one, which I bought on Ebay. Except... it never got to me, which meant I could never send it to Tim. It took nearly a month for the seller to pay me back.

So I bought him another - more expensive - one to replace that one, which replaced another one. Who knew that, technically, Nick Suzuki would be worth three Evgeni Malkins?

And so I present you with Malkin #3, card #24 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Premier collection and Jersey sub-set:

It shows #71 wearing the Pens' current home (and classic) black jersey from my youth, with a yellow swatch that could be from either the home or away uniforms.

It will be making its way to Mr. Parish's home tomorrow morning. I didn't have it long enough for it to become "my precious", but "Geno" is in fact one of only two Penguins I actively follow and really admire, with Kris Letang. I'm gld I got to hold it in my hands once.

Ryan Pulock Autographed Card

Even though he is technically playing a minute less than he was in last year's playoffs - 22:17 versus 23:17 per game - Ryan Pulock is the New York Islanders' most-used skater, roughly 30 seconds more than defensive partner Adam Pelech. And while the Isles are generally seen as the lone remaining postseason team without a Norris-level defenseman - compared to the Vegas Golden Knights' Shea Theodore, the Dallas Stars' Miro Heiskanen and the Tampa Bay Lightning's Victor Hedman, not to mention Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev - Pulock's goal and 8 assists for 9 points in 18 games is definitely elite-level, but the fact that the Islanders are 7-1 when he gets on the score sheet is even more impressive.

In Barry Trotz' system, apparently, the "little things" that quiet and subtle players achieve on the ice get rewarded often enough that they show up as "actual tangible things", and when they do, they tend to matter.

I'm really enjoying this series between a team basically using a modernized version of "The Trap" and the other perhaps the most skilled team of the salary cap era, and while I like a lot of players wearing the NY logo - Pulock, Semyon Varlamov, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anthony Beauvillier, Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle, Derick Brassard, Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk, Thomas Hickey and Andrew Ladd - I'm also kind of glad to see the Bolts find ways to create offense and ensure we don't fall into another Dead Puck Era.

Here's a look at Pulock wearing the Isles' current/retro blue (now-home) uniform on card #182 from the 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee set from Upper Deck:

He signed it in blue sharpie last December.

Raphaël Lavoie Autographed Card

As the Edmonton Oilers' 2019 second-round pick (38th overall), 20-year-old Raphaël Lavoie no longer has anything to prove in Juniors after a 38-goal,  44-assist and 82-point season in 55 games in 2019-20 split between the Halifax Mooseheads (18-26-44 in 30 games) and Chicoutimi Saguenéens (20-18-38 in 25 games).

He is old enough for the AHL, but we don't know when that league will begin its season (there are no plans to do so before the end of the calendar year as long as the Covid-19 numbers remain ridiculously high in the U.S. and the passing of a second wave in Canada, so his agent had a good idea to have him sign in Sweden. He may even start a trend of high-end prospects signing overseas until the end of the European season, then finishing what is left of the North American one, which is bound to be at least two or three months later.

I do have doubts about a player who isn't a top-three NHL draft pick making the jump from the LHJMQ/CHL directly to the third-best league in the world - I'd say the pro hockey world goes: NHL, KHL, SHL, AHL, Finland, Czech League, Switzerland - but perhaps they can start him in their affiliate system ( Hockey Allsvenskan) for a month or two and bring him up to the main team later in the year.

And if it doesn't work out, he's probably good enough to make it on a top-six in France or a middle-six in the Swiss League.

A power forward with his skill set - 6'4", 200 pounds, good hands, adult-level-impressive strength, puck protection ability and offensive flair and positioning - will eventually become a 30-goal scorer in the NHL, but he's not there yet; he has not yet learned the ropes, learned to use his body against men night in and night out and consistently put up points whether the games are easy or hard, so he would be able to rely on just his skill in roughly a third of the games in a lower-tiered league and play the rest by ear, but doing so in a competitive, veteran-heavy league whose country wins Olympic and World Championship gold medals, with or without NHL players, seems like a bit of a stretch.

Time will tell how he fares in Europe this year, but I can't wait until he makes the NHL in wo or three years and when he reaches his prime in five or six, while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisailt are still elite players; maybe he'll be able to sprinkle a couple of 40-goal seasons in there and earn one huge contract.

In the meantime, here he is wearing Team Canada's red (away) uniform on card #35 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Team Canada Juniors/Women set, wearing #25 at the 2018 U18 Championships, where he scored 5 goals in 5 games:

He signed it in thick blue sharpie while still with the Mooseheads early last season.

Anthony Beauvillier: Two Autographed Cards

The New York Islanders did what they do tonight, shutting down the Washington Capitals to win their first-round series in 5 games, two fewer than I had thought it would take, on the strength of two goals from 22-year-old Anthony Beauvillier, who now leads his team with 6 goals and 9 points in 9 postseason games.

It'll be hard to keep that pace up on a team coached by defensive mastermind Barry Trotz, but "Bovril" was still sixth in team scoring in the regular season with 39 points and fourth in goals, as his 18 in 68 games matched his previous season's mark that was attained in 81 contests.

He hasn't yet reached teammate Mathew Barzal's level of productivity, but he will definitely be part of the Isles' core group going forward and will be a great pair with trade deadline acquisition and clutch performer Jean-Gabriel Pageau in the middle-six group.

Internationally, he has represented Team Québec in the 2014 U-17s (fourth-place finish) and Team Canada at the 2014 Hlinka-Gretzky U-18s Cup (gold), the 2015 U-18 World Juniors (silver), the 2016 World Juniors (sixth place) and the 2017 World Championships (fourth place), a team that was led by Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Colton Parkayko and Pierre-Luc Dubois and that also included current Islanders Pageau, Barzal, Jordan Eberle, Josh Bailey, and Ryan Pulock, as well as Ryan O'Reilly, Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, Darnell Nurse, Thomas Chabot and Ryan Murray.

This card shows him wearing Canada's white ("home") uniform during the 2015 U-18s, where he was teammates with Barzal, Chabot and Dubois as well as Nicolas Roy, Mitchell Stephens, Brett Howden, Ethan Bear, Matthew Spencer and Guillaume Dubois:

That's card #H-7 from Upper Deck's 2015-16 Team Canada Juniors set and Hydro sub-set that is a lot more silver to the naked eye than this dark scan, although the scan might look a tad cooler. It enables me to add him as #9 in my Team Canada Numbers Project, where he also occupied the #21 spot for now.

Tonight, however, he goes down as the Capital Eliminator in the Islanders' white (away) uniform, as seen on card #231 from UD's 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee set:

I got these returns in the mail around this time last year, signed in blue sharpie, the Team Canada card tagged with his jersey number (9) at the end.

Bobby Ryan Autographed Card

Sometimes a Cinderella story just seems to write itself... over 100 days after self-entering the NHL/NHLPA's substance abuse program for alcohol dependency, Bobby Ryan made his home return for the Ottawa Senators and in his second game back started with a Gordie Howe hat trick and turned it into a regular one.

I don't know if I buy in as much of the BFR love as Silver Sevens has, but I do agree he, as a human being and a person, has lived up to what it means to be an honest professional hockey player. As far as his contract, cap hit and production goes, I understand that being selected second-overall after Sidney Crosby and ahead of Anze Kopitar (11th), Paul Stastny (44th), Kristopher Letang (62nd), Marc-Édouard Vlasic (35th) - and even to some extent Carey Price (5th), Tuukka Rask (21st), Jonathan Quick (72nd) and Ben Bishop (85th) - comes with pressure and expectations, but the fact of the matter is that he's missed some 60 games to injury and another 50 to dealing with his off-ice problems, he's still sixth of his draft year in points, slightly ahead of a very good goal-scorer in James Neal, and he's fourth in goals (behind Crosby, Kopitar and Neal), just ahead of Stastny, and a season's worth of putters ahead of the likes of T.J. Oshie and Patric Hornqvist.

Again: Bobby Ryan was raised in a violent household that was so messed up that he went through a name change so his father could escape jail for a while, was heavily criticized by Team USA GM Brian Burke and left off the 2014 Olympic team despite helping his country win silver in 2010, lost his mother just as he was finding his game in the Canadian capital, battled through criticism from the press because of his cap hit and still had three 30-goal NHL seasons and was a key part in taking the Sens to overtime of Game 7 of the 2016-17 Eastern Conference Final (with the psychological help/acumen of then-head coach Guy Boucher).

There are no two ways about it: his story has been one of trials and success. He is not a "bust".

Unfortunately, he's about to exit his prime having spent a fair chunk of it hurting his body off the ice as much as on it, and when the Senators become competitive again, he may have to ride the young stars' coattails instead of helping lead the way through his play, but with the way his story has gone, at least he may be there to see it through, unlike Ottawa-born Jean-Gabriel Pageau, unfortunately.

Here's Ryan wearing the same uniform he got his comeback hat trick in, Ottawa's red (home) one, on card #171 from the 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee set by Upper Deck:

He signed it in blue sharpie after a Senators practice last season.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Two Autographed Cards

I wasn't sure if it would, but it's a done deal: the Ottawa Senators have traded Jean-Gabriel Pageau to the New York Islanders for a 2020 first-rounder (top-3 protected, but the Isles will likely make the playoffs, so that pick's safe), a 2020 second-rounder and potentially a 2022 third-rounder (if the isles win the Stanley Cup this year, which they probably won't).

If the Sens re-sign Pageau this summer, it's a landslide victory. I honestly have some difficulty picturing him in another uniform, let alone other colours than red, white and black. I may have preferred to see him go to the Calgary Flames.

He's one of my favourite players, one of the best two-way players in the league who has found his offensive upside again this year after a sub-par season last year - funny what outlier shooting percentages can do, eh? I hope he earns more post-season experience. He sure made an impact in 2017-18, with 10 points in 19 games, part of a balanced three-headed monster at centre with Derick Brassard (11 points) and Kyle Turris (10), helping the Sens to an Eastern Conference Final Game 7 overtime loss to eventual Cup champions Pittsburgh Penguins.

Here he is wearing the Sens' white (away) uniform, checking an Arizona Coyotes player into the boards with a high elbow, on card #128 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 Series 1 collection:

And here he is wearing Ottawa's red (home) uniform with the alternate captain's "A" on his chest, on card #340 from the 2019-20 O-Pee-Chee set from UD:

I really think the Ottawa native and French-Canadian is an essential veteran to help lead the Senators' young guns, including the French-speaking Thomas Chabot and Maxime Lajoie. I hope they bring him back in July.

(edit, the Isles re-signed him for six years at a reasonable $5M per, for $30M total).