Flames Preview: Akim Aliu Autograph Card

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: 2020 is a different beast and requires adaptability; in my case, it means the joint posts with my "main/personal" blog will not be in the "player here/analysis there" format but rather the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written. Two more caveats: at this point, the NHL has not even confirmed the division make-ups yet despite the season being set to start a month from now, and several impact players such as 25-to-30-goal scorer Mike Hoffman and 20-goal journeyman forward Anthony Duclair, among others, haven't found a team yet. And quite a few teams are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

That being said, let's start with the one division we're pretty sure is going to happen if only because of the border situation, the Canadian/North Division, and the Calgary Flames.

Calgary has been trending downwards since looking overmatched in the 2019 playoffs against a much better and faster Colorado Avalanche team, with the entire first line of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm appearing to be in the midst of mid-life crises.

What makes their odds look good:
GM Brad Treliving was faced with a huge dilemme: which team is the real Flames, the one which finished with the second-best offense and ninth-best defense in the league in 2018-19, or the 20th-best offense and 18th defense in 2019-20? Instead of betting on one and hoping for the best, he retooled his defense and added the best goalie on either the free agent or trade market - legitimate Vezina contender Jacob Markstrom - so that even if Gaudreau and Monahan have dropped from 90-point producers to 65-point players, the back end will be able to compensate by shutting the door more effectively in the defensive zone, at least.

Also, it's now clear that Mark Giordano no longer has to both anchor the blue line and be the team's heart and soul - that latter task now rests on the younger shoulders of Matthew Tkachuk, and he relishes it.

Speaking of the back end, T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic may have left as free agents duing the offseason, but Rasmus Andersson and Juuso Valimaki are ready to take their place, with Noah Hanifin completing what remains one of the best top-fours in the league, definitely in the top-10.

Question marks:
Is Geoff Ward an NHL-level head coach and if not, how does a team make a change in a Covid-19, two-week quarantine world?

Can Gaudreau bounce back?

Outlook:
Markstrom is an improvement over Cam Talbot between the pipes, the defense got five years younger but remains as good, and there is some depth - Tkachuk, Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, playoff Sam Bennett showcasing his stuff for a Seattle expansion draft, Dillon Dubé - up front. I just always expect the Flames to fire their coach and hire a Sutter to take them to a Stanely Cup Final.

In a Canadian division, Calgary is not as good as the Vancouver Canucks, not as deep as the Montréal Canadiens and lack the star power of the Edmonton Oilers; I see them fighting with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the final playoff spot and I believe the team that takes the season series wins the berth, and I believe the Flames can etch out one more win than the Leafs.

Prediction:
Fourth in the Canadian Division.

Akim Aliu may have left the Flames organization in 2013, but he has had an impact on the team as recently as last season, one which is still felt today, as his outing of the abuse head coach Bill Peters in November, following the dismissal of Mike Babcock from the Leafs; Peters was replaced by Ward, who may or may not be in over his head at the NHL level.

If you don't know Aliu's story, I urge you to read his side of it first, so that if you do form an initial opinion, it is at least based on your perception of his side of it. From the language barrier as a kid to growing up poor in two countries to the Steve Downie incident in Juniors to the Peters incident in the AHL, it is a testament that, yes, hockey is tough on many, but more so on people of colour, who still have to struggle with oftentimes worse socio-economical situations and the weight of slurs often having the meaning of "less than human" attached to them.

He's 31 years old at this point, for all intents and purposes removed from an NHL job for having spent most of his development and prime years just trying to keep a job in the lower echelons of the sport - and I recall instances where the Toronto media would try to help him by interviewing him in October, as he was still searching for a job, practising with local Juniors or University teams hoping for an NHL GM to call, instead answering the bell to play abroad. His skill-set still has him dominate in the ECHL, but he's more of a middle-of-the-linup AHLer or Tier II European star at this point, whereas he would have (probably) been a dependable middle-six NHLer if given a proper chance.

Regardless of the angle you take it on, hockey has to be an inclusive sport. If only for the economics, you want as many people as possible to purchase gear, apparel, and memorabilia, but the marketing of the sport also needs every kid to be able to dream they have a spot in it if they want it; on an HR level, why would you go out of your way to reduce the pool of candidates for any given job, especially since hiring someone that doesn't fit in the traditional mold might be what's needed to provide a new train of thought that gives you the outside edge. It's gotten better and easier for Russians and Eastern Bloc hockey folks to make it in North America, but it's also time kids from decrepit rinks in poor parts of Toronto and Winnipeg, people from the Far North and other Indeginous peoples to also get the access to a fair shake.

Jay Feaster was on the right side of many a one-sided move as GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Flames, including a deal to loan Aliu from the Winnipeg Jets to try him out and then send John Negrin for his actual rights, and with 3 points and 12 penalty minutes in two games in 2011-12 and another 14 PIMs in 5 games in 2012-13, he knew he had a guy who would stand his ground to keep his spot, but he lost his footing - a contending team going into a sudden rebuild due to inuries to starting goalie Miikka Kiprusoff, a tight salary cap that cost depth inn the middle of the lineup and young guys like Giordano, Brodie and Backlund taking just a tad too long to develop - and had to trade away Hall Of Fame captain Jarome Iginla before losing his job. I personally would have loved to see Iginla and Steve Bégin take Aliu under their wings and mesh his natural talent and determination with an irreproachable work ethic that would have made this sight one that lasts 8 years instead of 8 games:

That's the signed insert version of card #109 from Upper Deck's 2012-13 SP Game-Used Edition set and Authentic Rookies sub-set. It features an on-sticker blue-sharpied autograph and shows hi wearin gthe team's classic red uniform.

Blake Hillman Autograph Card

Blake Hillman was part of an entire crop of College players who signed a shorter-term ELC in their early 20s, but unlike a lot of seniors who were free agents for never having been drafted or waiting for their fourth year to not play with the team that owned their rights, he chose to sign with the Chicago Blackhawks, who had selected him 173th overall in 2016.

He got to play in four games at the tail of of the season, scoring a goal in his second game; however, with the Hawks' logjam on defense last year and the NHL limit of 50 active contracts, the team elected not to extend him a qualifying offer last summer, and he became a UFA at the age of 23.

He signed a one-year deal with the ECHL's Toledo Walleye and appeared in five AHL games with the Grand Rapids Griffins, but he hasn't shown the type of offensive game that will make it easy for him to have another shit at the NHL soon.

He may have to sign a few AHL deals or spend a year or two in Europe to show that his defensive game is strong enough to warrant a bottom-pairing role in the Big Show.

Here he is wearing the Hawks' white (away) uniform on the signed insert version of card #146 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 SP Game-Used Edition collection and Authentic Rookies sub-set:

It features a blue-sharpied on-sticker autograph with his jersey number (55) tagged at the end.

Dylan Gambrell Jersey Card

To my absolute pleasure, the San Jose Sharks are mired in a mediocre quarter-season that has them in a four-team cluster oscillating between fourth-place and seventh in the lowly Pacific Division; additionally, their offense is pretty dry, with a number of forwards performing below expectations notably restricted free agent signings Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc (he who "bet on himself" last summer to help the team bring back veterans Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau to the fold).

One player who can't seem to find his place on the roster is 23-year-old Dylan Gambrell, the 60th pick in the 2016 draft, ahead of the likes of top-unit defenseman Adam Fox (66th overall), Joey Anderson (73rd), Carsen Twarynski (82nd), Josh Mahura (85th), top-unit defenseman Victor Mete (100th), Sharks teammate Noah Gregor (111th), a goalie who's already played for the Colorado Avalanche (Adam Werner, 131st), Max Lajoie (133rd), Nicholas Caamano (146th), top-six forward Jesper Bratt (162nd), and Maxim Mamin (175th).

At 6' and 183 pounds, Gambrell is by no means a power forward, which means he should develop at a regular pace, reaching his prime between the ages of 24 and 27 until roughly 30, 31 or 32. He has a good face-off percentage this season at 52.0%, but cannot yet be used as a shut-down third-liner because his -6 rating is problematic, made worse by a negative Corsi (45.8), a negative Fenwick (44.1) and a negative PDO (97.4).

His lone goal with 4 assists for 5 points in 20 games makes his coach hesitate to send him out with better players, particularly since the two forwards who are near the point-per-game mark are both centres - Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl.

Then again, his head coach is Peter DeBoer, not exactly a guy known for fixing things, changing them up or thinking outside the box.

Here he is wearing the Sharks' teal uniform they've been using since 2013 (with the shoulder patches that date from 2017 onward, though, featuring a matching jersey swatch:

That's the "Gold" variant of the jersey insert version of card #118 from Upper Deck's 2018-19 SP Game-Used collection and Authentic Rookies sub-set, numbered 366/499.

They are purposefully vague about the origins of the jersey, however:

They guarantee it's "been worn by the featured player". Whether it was on or off the ice, in a game or a photo shoot, if he was asleep or awake or even consented to wearing it is not specified, nor it the jersey is authentic game-quality or a replica.

Keep in mind these cost $150 for six cards - that's over 20 hours of a minimum-wage job in Canadian money considering income and sales taxes.

Nicolas Petan Jersey Card

There is a tendency in sports reporting that I don't like and is being normalized these days, which is to attack someone (or a group of people) at the bottom of the food chain to send a message to the entity or entities up top, and the worst of the worst - as always - comes from the Toronto media.

Not only do they concentrate on their own team too much, they also over-emphasize the importance of the Toronto Maple Leafs (far from the most storied franchise in the league, in fact more like the team with the most and longest sequences of irrelevance), but they live in a bubble where they keep repeating the same message over and over where it actually becomes a narrative and a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Too cryptic?

Think of last summer's narrative: The overpaid John Tavares and Auston Matthews inspired Mitch Marner to force the Leafs to hand him the same type of overpaid contract, but with the overpaid William Nylander in the mix, they won't have enough money to match the high-powered offense with a top-notch defense, and they will lack depth.

Fine.

On the other hand, teams with great defence (the Nashville Predators come to mind) rarely can afford 50-goal scorers and 100-point forwards (except maybe the Calgary Flames). Case in point: the Vegas Golden Knights and Pittsburgh Penguins.

But I digress. I was talking about the bubble: TSN (half-owners of the team) talks about the lack of depth, Sportsnet (half owners of the team and sole owners of the national TV rights) talks about a lack of depth; the Globe And Mail and sports radio talks about a lack of depth and hints at a general lack of talent; the National Post says it's the most disappointing Leafs team of the past 20 years; TSN gets more critical, Sportsnet gets more critical, Hockey Night In Canada points to why they're in a critical situation, sports radio wants GM Kyle Dubas' head while Sportsnet asks for head coach Mike Babcock's - the same Babcock they were so adamant was the exact person the team needed when they signed him - now that his patience and rebuild process and plan has come to fruition, and TSN Radio goes and says the team has "no talent".

They're not wrong on the initial, original premise: Tavares was overpaid to be convinced to leave the New York Islanders in the midst of his prime at age 28 because he was eventually going to represent a reasonable portion of the salary cap when the young guns also reach their prime; Matthews and Marner - at least a couple of years away from their prime - are already getting paid for what they'll be expected to provide when they're 25 and 26 years old; Nylander should never have been given that money, he'll likely never be worth it; there is less money left to hire 19 other players at a value that most pother teams will be spending on 19 players.

All true.

But some players accepted to play for their hometown team at a rebate - Jason Spezza, for instance, taking a 90% pay cut to join a contending club and provide leadership. Sure, he's far removed from his prime, but for what he can provide (he's coming off two straight 8-goal, 26-and 27-point seasons, so it'd be reasonable to expect 5-7 goals and 22-25 points on his part with favourable matchups), but you'd have to think the Montréal Canadiens or Ottawa Senators would have paid double for what he brings, to provide their young players with a lifetime's worth of experience from top-rated prospect to second-liner to first-liner to centre of the best line in the NHL to captain to depth piece to checking centre. Contracts like his enable so0me extravagance in other areas.

What I don't like is how it spirals into "no talent" territory.

1: Fuck You. 2: What?

Spezza is a 1000-game veteran with over 900 points; Jake Muzzin is an Olympic gold medal winner with Team Canada; Alex Kerfoot will make more mistakes than your usual third-line centre, but he'll chip in for 40-50 points, 20% more than is expected from his position; Dmytro Timashov is 23, in his first NHL season, and was a two-point-per-game player in the LHJMQ; that "no good" Cody Ceci is a +6; Frédérik Gauthier is a former first-rounder who was always groomed to be a fourth-liner for this team, so I don't know what else people were expecting; Michael Hutchinson is in his fourth organization and third NHL team (he never played for the Boston Bruins but had a short stint with the Florida Panthers and played with the Winnipeg Jets in parts of five seasons), meaning three teams so far have seen him as a better option than their own current #3 goalies; Rasmus Sandin, just 19 years old, former first-rounder; Nick Shore, veteran of nearly 250 NHL games.

These aren't your beer league retirees or ECHL-caliber youngsters, these are ten of 700 players who will play in the best league in the world this year, possibly among the 1000 best at what they do on the planet. I know for a fact that no one in the National Post is among the top 1000 at what they do.

Which brings me to Nicolas Petan, former second-round pick of the Winnipeg Jets (43rd overall in 2013), acquired by the Leafs at last year's trade deadline and extended for two seasons near the league minimum who was quickly recalled early in the month. He has an assist in 4 games so far, which projects to 20 points over a full season while playing under 10 minutes per, but he was a point-per-game player in the AHL (52 points in 52 games) with the Manitoba Moose in 2017-18.

He has talent, he has guts, but Babcock won't play him because he's 5'9" despite his 180 pounds. But he's there waiting for his chance, like Martin St-Louis, Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, David Desharnais and Paul Byron before him.

Journalists and pundits need to chill out and realize we're just 13 games in - time to reflect, time to prepare for the 20-game/quarter-season look back, but no time to panic or ask for heads to roll, especially those who have no stake in it.

Here is Petan wearingt the Jets' white (away) uniform, on the bronze insert version of card #150 from Upper Deck's 2015-16 SP Game-Used Edition collection and Authentic Rookies sub-set:

It features a dark blue event-worn jersey swatch and is numbered 241/399.

Kyle Baun Jersey Card

Following decent seasons, statistically, in lower-level Junior leagues such as the OJHL and the CCHA, Kyle Baun took his talents to Colgate University where his size and versatility proved more and more important as the years passed, leading to the Chicago Blackhawks signing him to a two-year entry-level free agent deal in 2015, which included a 3-game showing to finish off the 2014-15 season.

He got two more reps in the NHL the following year, but spent the majority of his first full professional season with the AHL's Rockford IceHogs, posting 1 goal and 8 assists for 9 points in 43 games.

He more than tripled that production last year, finishing second on the team with 14 goals, 20 assists and 34 points in 74 games last year and was traded to the Montréal Canadiens for Andreas Martisens in early October, meaning that the trade that sent talented forward Sven Andrighetto to the Colorado Avalanche at last season's trade deadline was a complete flop, as was Habs GM Marc Bergevin's entire strategy of adding heavy players last year, seeing that only Shea Weber remains from his "bulk increase"/Claude Julien-friendly moves, as no one among Martisens, Steve Ott, and Dwight King remain with the organization just 30 games later.

Baun, however, is on pace to have his best career numbers yet, with 9 points (2 goals and 7 assists) in 16 games so far with the Laval Rocket. The 6'2", 210-pound 25-year-old is developing into the power forward many saw in him, and even if he platoons as a half-point-per-game player in the AHL, that kind of skill can still be translated to a bottom-six role in the NHL.

In other words, he's doing alright. As long as the current administration doesn't ruin him, as the Bergevin/Julien duo seems to be able to do rather quickly these days.

Here he is sporting the Hawks' classic red (now-home) uniform, on the "Copper" variant version of card #181 from Upper Deck's 2015-16 SP Game-Used Edition collection and Authentic Rookies sub-set:

It features a small matching event-worn jersey swatch from a rookie photo shoot, and is numbered 377/399.

He is the grandson of former Toronto Maple Leafs star defenseman and Toronto Toros head coach Bobby Baun, who is in the Ontario Sports Hall of Fame.